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Published September 15, 2009 Chase-To pursue, to follow quickly, to hasten, to drive away
NASCAR’s ballyhooed (ballyhoo means far too much hype) Chase to the Sprint Cup has finally arrived. Twelve drivers will do battle over the final ten weeks of the season and with Chase seeding, only 40 points separate the top driver from the bottom driver. Drivers can survive one poor outing, but two bad weeks will end their dreams of taking home the championship trophy. Mathematically all drivers have a chance to be #1. If you interview any of them they will all tell you they like their chances. Realistically only five drivers have much of a chance to be the final driver introduced at the Sprint Cup banquet in Las Vegas. Below is my take on each driver’s chance to hoist the cup. Mark Martin is the number one seed, and is certainly the sentimental favorite. Baby boomers love watching the 50 year old Arkansas native kick the butts of NASCAR’s young guns. This in Martin’s best shot ever at winning a championship, and at his age there ought to be a sense of urgency. Martin doesn’t show it if there is. He has been saying he wants to win the points battle for his team, and he seems believable. He does have the best equipment of his career, a much underrated crew chief, and the wisdom garnered from years of racing at the sport’s top level. He has a legitimate shot at being the big winner. Tony Stewart is seeded second in the Chase. I have been impressed with both Stewart the driver and Stewart the car owner this season. He seems to have matured from the surly racer of the past, and he has always been the driver with the most talent. He clinched his spot in the Chase early, and since then his team has not produced close to its best efforts. I wouldn’t say they are limping into the Chase, but they do need to turn things around starting at Loudon. I don’t think you can ever count Stewart out. His desire to win anything, anywhere in a race car is just too strong. Three time champion Jimmy Johnson is the seeded third in the Chase. The 48 team has the Chase figured out. If he can win three championships in a row, why not a fourth? The team seems to maximize each race, even their bad outings are good bad outings. Other drivers are hungry, but Johnson and crew seem as hungry as they did before championship #1. Sprint Cup #4 for Johnson would be no surprise. Virginian Denny Hamlin is 4th seed in the Chase. After winning last week’s Richmond race warned competitors “this team is dangerous.” He might be right. The Fed Ex Cup is a golf championship, but it is not a stretch to see the driver of the Fed Ex Sprint Cup car winning auto racing’s top prize. Kasey Kahne is the number five seed. Call it the cuteness factor, but I just don’t see him winning the Cup. I don’t know if this is some kind of prejudice, but I don’t see a Dodge winning the Chase. Jeff Gordon is the number six seed. I think he is going to be a tough competitor this year. The team has been consistent all year, and while Gordon is hardly old, I don’t see him racing years and years more. If he starts out fast, look out. Kurt Busch is seeded 7th. I used to be among the legion of fans that loved to hate Kurt. He was never quite as immature as his brother Kyle, but he was terribly irritating. Like Tony Stewart he seems to have matured, and I really don’t mind listening to his interviews. Driving a Dodge, I don’t think he will win, but he is a past champion, so he knows what it takes to win. I think eighth seed Brian Vickers is simply thrilled to be in the Chase. So are his competitors because if Kyle Busch had made the Chase it might have been an entirely different game. For weeks, every race was a must do go for Vickers, and that could mean that the team is well prepared for the next ten weeks. It could also mean they are burning out. I don’t see them as being a factor. Carl Edwards is the 9th seed in the Chase. Lots of people like him. I don’t, even though he is from the Midwest. Call it personal bias, but I can’t or won’t acknowledge him as being any kind of threat to win this championship. Yes, I do have a good reason for not liking him. Ryan Newman is the 10th seed in the Chase, so Stewart Haas Racing put both teams in the Chase in its first year of operation. That is a major success, and even though I don’t see Newman as being a factor in the championship run, he has still had a great season. Juan Pablo Montoya is the 11th seed. Is he on “Target” to win a championship? I don’t think so. No bad vibes about his chances, but no good ones either. I think he could finish in the top ten, and that makes for a super season for him. Roush Racing’s second entry in the Chase is 12th seeded Greg Biffle. I would not be surprised to see Biffle finish anywhere from 5th-12th in the final standings. I would be very surprised to see him finish higher. My prediction: 11-Greg Biffle Thanks for stopping by.
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