ColumbusSports.com : Your place to stay informed and talk about the sports scene and sports teams in and around Columbus.

The calendar is getting ready to turn to February, and we still don't know what to make of the young Buckeye Hoopster's.  There have been surprise wins early on, rather shocking losses in the middle, and then a glimmer of hope with a side dish of humility to cleanse the palate.  While getting into the NCAA field looked like a foregone conclusion a month ago, their chances are starting to teeter on the edge after the latest loss at home to Michigan State. This begs the question:  Will OSU get into the Prom of NCAA basketball tournaments, or will they be relegated to a spring "Sock Hop?"

This question is not an easy one to answer.  First of all, the Big 10 schedule is not even half over yet, the RPI rankings that weigh so heavily on a team's resume will continue to see-saw, and those tricky little conference tournaments that always result in a few upsets to knock out deserving teams have yet to play themselves out.  Despite all of this, we will try to lay out a road map of what must happen for Ohio State to get in, and then change it 300 times from here until the middle of March (that's right Central Ohioan's, spring will come at some point, I promise).

Will OSU get into the Prom of NCAA basketball tournaments, or will they be relegated to a spring "Sock Hop?"

Before we get started, it is obviously imperative to gauge what the team has done thus far.  You can look at the body of work as a whole and start to fee really good about some of the outcomes.  The Buckeyes have four very quality wins already on the year.  They have beaten good teams from other power conferences away from home in the early part of the schedule.  There was the surprising stretch run in which Ohio State knocked off both Miami (FL) and Notre Dame both away from home in the same week.  Lost in these couple of important wins is the fact that the Bucks also beat Butler (all be it at home) shortly after those big wins.  One gaze at Butler's win loss record and RPI (18-1 and 7 respectively) should tell you that this may end up being the win that ultimately gets them in.  The fourth of the quality wins was at Michigan just when we thought the team was trending down after the loss of David Lighty.  Heading into this week, the Buckeyes were not ranked in the top 25 of the AP or ESPN/USA Today polls, but had a more than respectable RPI of 22 and an overall record of 14-5, 4-4 in the Big 10.

Now, the flip side of the coin:  For all of the good things that jump out at you, there are some pretty disturbing parts of the campaign as well.  Ohio State has gotten beat badly on a couple of occasions.  By far, the worst loss of the season was to Huggie Bear's West Virginia Mountaineers.  The Buckeyes didn't just lose to a non-ranked Big East team at home; they looked like they didn't even belong on the same court, to a tune of 76-48.  Tournament teams simply don't get beat at home that badly to anyone, right?  Ohio State also got beat by 18 at Illinois.  I'll give you the fact that Illinois is a much improved team, but to get beat by this many while only mustering 49 points will result in a tick to the "bad-loss" column.  Finally, with every opportunity, comes a chance to move a little closer to the cliff that drops off into the NIT gorge.  Ohio State is already done with their series against the best team in the Big 10:  Michigan State.  Both times, the Buckeyes left the court with their tales between their legs as a result of a double digit loss. 

Taking the win over Michigan this week into consideration, I would say that right now, despite the bad losses, it would be hard to keep Ohio State out of the NCAA tournament as it stands right now.  Good or bad however, more games still remain in a Big 10 that is not as easily traveled as year's past.  So, what mountain's must the scarlet and gray clad fighting Matta's climb in order to keep their perch? Let's do a 3/4 tuck roll right into the pool of possibilities....

I am not in the same frame of mind as other folks around the Big 10 might be.  While I can agree that the Big 10 is much tougher this year, I still believe that you have to be at or better than .500 in the league before you can punch your ticket.  Despite all that the team did in the non-conference, if they finish the Big 10 at less than .500, I believe that they may be in trouble.  That being said, the easiest way to slice and dice this is by conference record.  Here are the scenarios:

Conference record of at least 10-8 (Overall regular season 20-9 or better):

The Bucks are in.  When the selection committee ultimately sits down and looks at the quality wins outside of conference in combination with the strength of the Big 10 (currently 2nd in the RPI), I firmly believe there is no way Ohio State can be left out. Remaining Record to Attain NCAA Selection: 6-4, no need to win a conference tournament game

Conference record of at least 9-9 (Overall regular season 19-10 or better): 

This is squarely on the bubble.  Any team that doesn't make the magical 20 win plateau and does not finish above .500 in their conference is no lock.  Remember that OSU only had 19 wins in the regular season last year, and finished the conference at 10-8.  If you remember that, then you may also remember that Ohio State won the NIT.  If Ohio State finishes this way, more than likely they will need at least one win, if not two in the Big 10 Conference Tournament.  Remaining Record to Attain NCAA Selection: 5-5 plus a win in the Big 10 tournament

Conference record of 8-10 or worse (Overall regular season of 18-11 or worse):

I could be wrong about this, but I really don't think that the Buckeyes get in with a conference record of 8-10.  If Ohio State finishes the season at this point or worse, they might have an outside shot of getting in if they can win 2 or 3 games in the Big 10 Tournament.  I guess you could still technically say that they are on the bubble in the 8-10 conference record scenarios, but anything less than a magical run through the Big 10 Tournament would be hopeful at best.  Remaining Record to Attain NCAA Selection: Doesn't matter because you better win the Big 10 Tourney

There.  That should make everything about as clear as the visibility during a blizzard in Minneapolis.  If we use the logic that OSU must go 6-4 from here on out to absolutely lock up a bid, then they have some work to do.  The basic ingredients to get to this point would consist of winning the remaining games at home (5) and then beating both Indiana and Iowa on the road.  More realistically though, one or two of those 5 games at home will result in a loss leaving the young Buckeyes with no other option than to steal a game or two more on the road.  This might be a tall order the way that things are playing out in the Big 10 this year, but time shall tell.  Perhaps the team will find its groove back just in time when David Lighty comes back.  What we do know is that the game against Indiana on the road this weekend can get everything started in the right direction.  Lose this game however, and all of a sudden the date that Thad Matta thought he was taking to the dance, might start to form a shadow of a familiar dancing partner as the NIT asks to cut in.

Tags: ohio state basketball