The top two games in the Big Ten this week.
Big Ten Weekend Preview: Week Four
The top two games in the Big Ten this week.
No. 10 Penn State (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2)
The Nittany Lions have failed to get a win against the Wolverines for more than a decade as they last claimed victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor in November of 1996. Coincidently, Penn State will travel to Ann Arbor once again, this time to open the Big Ten season, and will try and keep their conference title hopes alive against a Michigan squad that is coming off their first win of the year, a 38-0 defeat of Notre Dame. A year ago Joe Paterno's squad was in it until the end in Happy Valley as Michigan was able to squeeze out a 17-10 victory to stay undefeated. Two years ago Paterno took his team to Ann Arbor and came within a second of defeating the Wolverines before Chad Henne hooked up with Mario Manningham on the infamous last second touchdown to win it 27-25. The 2002 matchup between the two squads was one to remember as well as Penn State took Michigan into overtime in Ann Arbor, but fell 27-24 as Chris Perry ran it in from three yards out to give Michigan the victory. Saturday's matchup should follow in the footsteps of some of the greatest games the two teams have played in the last decade as Michigan looks to rebound from a disappointing start in hopes of still claiming the Big Ten crown. Penn State on the other hand, looks for revenge as they send one of the best defenses in the country out on the field against what could potentially be, if healthy, one of the nation's most premier offenses.
Quarterback
This is without a doubt the most intriguing story line of the game as the uncertainty of whether Chad Henne will be able to play for the second consecutive week will certainly affect the way Michigan handles the football on offense. If Henne is able to go, Michigan will be able to open up its playbook and will look to go downfield to Manningham and Arrington in the passing game in hopes of opening up the rushing attack for Mike Hart. Should Henne not be able to go, however, freshman Ryan Mallet, who was as impressive as you can be for only throwing 15 passes last week in the win over Notre Dame, will get the call. Mallett showed great poise in the pocket and looked comfortable as he threw three touchdown passes against a weak Notre Dame secondary in the victory, but does limit Michigan in terms of opening up the playbook simply for the fact that he is a freshman that is still learning on the fly. Penn State signal-caller Anthony Morelli will face his first real test with a Michigan defense that really struggled, to say the least, against the spread offense in the first two games. However the defense is more suited to defend the pro-set offense and showed its dominance despite the Irish's lack of offensive power as they allowed less than 100 yards of total offense to Charlie Weis' golden domers. Morelli is off to an excellent start this season as he has thrown eight touchdown passes to just one interception. This one will all depend on if Henne plays or if he sits. If Henne goes, advantage to Michigan. If he sits, advantage to Penn State. Until we know, however, it is a toss-up.
Edge- Even
Running Backs
Mike Hart will be the single most important player on the field for Michigan on Saturday as his success will determine what Lloyd Carr decides to do with the offensive gameplan. Hart leads the country in rushing with 502 yards and five touchdowns, but will face a stingy run defense in Penn State this week. If Henne is unable to go, the weight is on Hart's shoulders to carry the load for the offense to try and ease the pressure on the freshman Mallett. Seniors Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott have been a productive one-two punch for Penn State thus far as they have each eclipsed the 200-yard mark through three games and have combined for seven touchdowns on the ground. The key will be how Michigan's defense responds after the dominant performance they showed against the Irish especially with their run defense and the blitzes that they executed against Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame offense.
Edge- Michigan
Wide Receivers
Both quarterbacks in this contest will have the luxury of having playmakers on the outside that can do damage in the open field. The trio of Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams have been the dominant group for the Nittany Lions the past couple of years and this year's start has been no different, but Norwood is the only one to reach the endzone so far this season, making it there twice. On the other side, Mario Manningham recorded his first touchdown reception of the season last week and seems to be getting started after two fairly solid games in a row. Adrian Arrington and sophomore Greg Mathews have proved to be solid second and third receivers as each has scored twice so far this year. The athleticism that both teams have on the outsides should bode well for the offenses if they plan to move it through the air.
Edge- Even
Offensive Line
Penn State has averaged 197 yards on the ground through the first three games of the season while Michigan has averaged more than 226 yards per game. Both teams have done a great job of protecting the quarterback as they have each allowed just five sacks this season. The Nittany Lion line, anchored by seniors John Shaw and A.Q. Shipley will face a defensive line that helped force eight sacks last week against Notre Dame led by Terrance Taylor and defensive ends Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham. Michigan's offensive line led by All-American Jake Long and guard Adam Kraus will be tested this week as well as they face the nation's top rushing defense so far this season led by the talented group of linebackers for Penn State. With Mike Hart in the backfield, Michigan's offensive line just might have a bigger opportunity for success and with Jake Long protecting the quarterback's blindside, Michigan is handed the edge here.
Edge- Michigan
Defensive Line
Penn State has allowed just over 17 yards per game rushing this season to the opposition and although much of that is due to the sack yardage that gets tacked onto the total, the defensive line along with the linebackers has played very well early in the season. While most teams have gotten down early to the Nittany Lions and were forced to abandon the run, Michigan is one that certainly will not do that as they will try and establish the run and might be one of the most stubborn teams in the country in trying to do so. They will simply try to impose their will on the defense and will not abandon the run as long as they are within striking distance or have the lead. The Michigan defense struggled in their first two contests against the run out of the spread, but came back last week and stuffed a rather ineffective rushing attack in Notre Dame. The defense has maintained that it is built to stop the pro-set, more conventional style of offense and will get the chance again this Saturday to defend that style of play with Kinlaw and Scott making up the backfield for Penn State.
Edge- Even
Linebackers
It is hard to go against a linebacking corp that has Dan Connor as the leader at the position and with Sean Lee playing alongside Connor, the Nittany Lions have one of the most prolific linebacking duos in the Big Ten. If Chad Henne is unavailable for the Wolverines, look for the Penn State defense to throw multiple blitz packages at the freshman Ryan Mallett to try and confuse him and keep him on his toes trying to force him into making some rookie mistakes. Similar to the pressure that the Michigan defense put on Anthony Morelli, the Penn State defense will look to do the same to the Michigan offense on Saturday. Shawn Crable has been a very solid performer for the Michigan defense this season and has been perhaps the most consistent defender thus far. While he has been criticized for committing some questionable penalties, Crable has been aggressive and has used his size in multiple ways, lining up both on the defensive line and as a linebacker en route to his team-leading eight tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks so far. But the inconsistencies at the remaining two linebacking spots despite their solid performance last week has to be a concern when facing teams that can hurt you both in the run game and through the air.
Edge- Penn State
Defensive Backs
Michigan's Morgan Trent has made huge strides this season in becoming their best cornerback in man-to-man coverage and has seen very few balls come his way due to his experience and the improvement that he has shown since last season. The opposite corner spot has seen its share of troubles as Brandon Harrison and Johnny Sears have struggled mightily in single-man coverage. Freshman corner Donovan Warren has given the defense a big lift though as he has shown why he was rated one of the top corners in the country in last year's recruiting class. The Michigan coaches have been more than pleased with the output of Warren and have reason to believe that with seniors Jamar Adams and Brandent Englemon at the safety positions, this group will continue to improve throughout the season. While the Michigan defense hopes for improvement, the Penn State secondary has been solid once again this season as Justin King has already recorded four pass breakups and safety Anthony Scirrotto has proven to be one of the best safeties in the Big Ten. The matchups between Justin King and the Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington should be a fun one to watch. When comparing the two secondaries though Penn State has more experience and better overall depth.
Edge- Penn State
Special Teams
Derrick Williams has been a solid return man since he arrived on campus and already has returned a punt for a touchdown this season, a 78-yard punt return that went the distance against Notre Dame in week two. Michigan has yet to break a big play on special teams, but with Greg Mathews as the punt returner, the Wolverines can expect smart decision making and hope that even if Mathews is not a gamebreaker at returner, he will not cost them by turning the ball over either. Both teams have struggled at times with the kicking game as Kevin Kelley has connected on three of five field goals for PSU while Jason Gingell has made just three of six attempts with two of the three misses coming as blocks in week one against Appalachian State. Both punters have been solid to this point as they both have have an average of more than 44 yards per punt. The edge comes down to the ability to make plays in the return game and with Derrick Williams possessing the ability to change field posistion if not the score gives Penn State the advantage.
Edge- Penn State
Prediction
In the end, Michigan will play good enough defense to get by while surprising many and the offense will come out and play tough hard-nosed football and control the clock keeping the Penn State offense off the field where they cannot hurt the Michigan defense. The psychological edge that Michigan holds over Penn State over the last decade or so might come into play as well if Penn State, especially if Penn State comes out sluggish in their first few possessions.
Penn State-20 Michigan-24
Iowa (2-1) @ No. 9 Wisconsin (3-0)
While this matchup may not be one that draws the interest of the national audience, it has major implications in the Big Ten standings. While Iowa enjoyed easy victories over Northern Illinois and Syracuse to start the season, they suffered a disappointing letdown to rival Iowa State last week in a 15-13 loss and one that probably didn't sit well with coach Kirk Ferentz. They can redeem themselves this week, though, by upsetting a top ten team and one of the favorites in the Big Ten, Wisconsin. Wisconsin started off the season with a convincing 42-21 victory over Washington State, but has struggled at times in two straight games against UNLV and The Citadel. While the Badger defense was supposed to be the solid group for this Wisconsin team, they allowed 377 yards and 31 points to The Citadel of Division IAA. The response of the Wisconsin defense after a struggle last week and the response of the Iowa team as a whole after a disappointing loss last week will be evident within the first five minutes of the game.
Quarterback
The battle between senior Tyler Donovan of Wisconsin and sophomore Jake Christensen will be one to keep an eye on as both quarterback play a similar style in that they wait for the run to set up the pass and rely on their receivers to make plays after the catch. So far this season, both quarterbacks have done a great job of not making mistakes and have been very efficient as Donovan has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions and Christensen has thrown five touchdowns and one pick. Donovan may hold the edge over Christensen heading in though as he has sophomore P.J. Hill lining up in the backfield behind him and will provide plenty of support in the running game.
Edge- Wisconsin
Running Backs
P.J. Hill hasn't endured any kind of a sophomore slump. At least not yet. Hill has rushed for just under 400 yards and has 6 touchdowns on the ground so far after his four rushing touchdowns last week in addition to a receiving touchdown as well in Badgers' win gives him a total of 21 in his young career. It will be tough for the Hawkeyes to slow him down, but so far this season they have been up to the task in stopping the run as opponents average just over 62 yards rushing per game against the Hawkeye defense. The thing that should worry most Hawkeye fans is that they haven't faced a rushing attack that is even near the level of Wisconsin up to this point, however. On offense the Hawkeyes will try and counter that run game with the duo of Albert Young and Damian Sims who have both rushed for more than 200 yards and each has scored just once this season by way of the running game. With Wisconsin struggling somewhat against the run so far this season, it would seem that the Hawkeyes would have the chance to run the ball, but don't count on it as Bret Bielema will get his defense focused and express the need to stop the run first. Give the edge to Hill and the Badgers backfield in this one.
Edge- Wisconsin
Wide Receivers
It is not often that a tight end leads the team in receiving but the Iowa Hawkeyes and Wisconsin Badgers have defeated the odds so far this season tight ends playing a pivotal role in each team's offense. Junior Tony Moeaki has 14 receptions for 170 yards and three scores through the first three games of the season. Wideout Andy Brodell remains the second leading receiver with 12 catches and is just shy of 100 yards on the season. Tight ends may just be the theme in this one though, as Wisconsin will showcase one of the best in the country in Travis Beckum. Beckum has backed up a stellar season in 2006 with a great start in 2007 as he has caught 16 passes for 175 yards and a score. Luke Swan enters as the leading receiver with 17 catches for 297 yards reaching the endzone twice. With P.J. Hill there to open up the passing game and an accurate passer in Donovan delivering the ball to them, the Badgers might just have the edge here too.
Edge- Wisconsin
Offensive Line
Despite the fact that Iowa has two rushers that have reached the 200-yard plateau already in three games, they have very few yards beyond that in the rushing game and have allowed seven sacks which ranks second to last in the Big Ten. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has managed to rush for yards even when Hill is not in the game and while they have allowed five sacks, they have more than made up for it in total offensive output. With an emphasis put on the running game and a passing game that is secondary, but productive, the Badger offensive line is relied upon heavily to wear down the opponent and could very well do so against the Hawkeyes.
Edge- Wisconsin
Defensive Line
Defensive lineman Matt Shaughnessy and Nick Hayden have been intregal parts of the Badger defense over the last couple season, but the two have yet to get it going so far this year. Between the two, they have just 5.5 tackles for loss and one sack. This week's matchup against a struggling Iowa team could be just what the doctor ordered, though, as the Hawkeyes' running game and drop-back passing game could end up allowing this to be a breakout game for the Wisconsin defensive line. Two similar players will lineup for the Hawkeyes in defensive end Bryan Mattison and tackle Mitch King. So far, the duo has played big for this Iowa squad as offensive backs have often found themselves being wrapped up in the backfield when these two bring the heat. If they can somehow stop the run with Hill and can force Wisconsin to pass the ball, the Hawkeyes might just be able to use that rush to their advantage in putting pressure on Tyler Donovan. That is a big "if", though, in stopping Hill and will be a big task for this defense.
Edge- Even
Linebackers
Mike Klinkenborg, Mike Humpal and A.J. Edds are a fairly solid backline to the Hawkeye front seven on defense, but although they all have racked up plenty of tackles so far this season, not many of them have been behind the line of scrimmage. In fact, the trio has yet to record a sack and have only accounted for 1.5 tackles for loss through three games. They have yet to show they can get upfield and get to the ball carrier before he gets going although they have done a great job of not allowing the backs to break tackles and get into the secondary either. The same can be said for the Badger defense as well and with the experience that exists at the position it has been a struggle for Wisconsin to get to the quarterback. Despite their lack of pressure, Elijah Hodge, Jonathan Casillas and Deandre Levy have been sure-tacklers in the open field to this point. Similar linebacking corps will have to battle it out to see who can gather the first sack among the starting three in the middle of the defense.
Edge- Even
Defensive Backs
The deciding factor between the two defenses could be in the defensive backfield, where although Wisconsin was shredded by The Citadel last week, they have great experience and athleticism. Cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu has seen very few balls thrown his way as he remains one of the best cover corners in the Big Ten. Allen Langford and the two starting safeties, whom are both sophomores, will be targeted in the passing game. The safeties are the most inexperienced position on the defense and that was very evident last week when the Bulldogs threw the ball up-and-down the field against them. Although Iowa's defensive backfield has yet to face a real test in the passing game, they have fared very well in through the first three weeks. Corners Adam Shada and Charles Godfrey have played extremely well. Their job along with the two veteran safeties will be to defend not only Luke Swan and the receiving corp, but also the tight end Beckum and even Hill coming out of the backfield on screens which Wisconsin has done a lot of over the last few years. The threat of Wisconsin's passing game is just a bit better than what Iowa has to offer on the outside and with the experience and toughness on the corners of the Wisconsin defense, give them the edge.
Edge- Wisconsin
Special Teams
Hawkeye placekicker Austin Signor has hit three of five field goals this season, but has struggled from 30-39 yards out as he has hit just one of his three attempts from that distance. Meanwhile, the Badgers' Taylor Mehlhaff has connected on all three of his attempt so far this season as Wisconsin has been able to punch it in for six on most of the possessions that have included getting the offense into scoring position. Where both teams have struggled, is in the punting department as both punters have failed to average even 37 yard per punt. This could be a game where both teams rely on the kicking game to win the field position battle and with both punters struggling to get great distance on their kicks, it will be interesting to see if either coach is willing to take a chance on fourth down to try and keep drives alive. Andy Brodell has been a solid punt returner but doesn't have the breakaway speed that can get a quick score for the Hawkeyes and the Badgers' David Gilreath has been much of the same on the other side. Neither team has outstanding special teams, but Wisconsin always seems to play great fundamental football and that could come into play often on Saturday.
Edge- Wisconsin
Prediction
Despite the fact that Wisconsin holds the advantage in nearly every offensive category, Iowa will come into the game with the mindset that they are not going to go down easy and will play solid defense in hopes of giving their offense good field position. Wisconsin will rely on the run and if Hill can get going early, it will be a long afternoon for the Hawkeyes, but Ferentz knows the Badgers' gameplan and will likely put eight in the box much of the game and force Tyler Donovan to beat them with his arm. If Iowa can keep it within a touchdown heading into the fourth quarter, Ferentz just might be able to pull a big upset in the Big Ten. In the end, though, the Wisconsin offensive line will wear down the Iowa defense late in the game and will run the ball well in the fourth quarter to preserve the victory in Madison.
Iowa-17 Wisconsin-27