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Big Ten Weekend Preview: Week Eight

The top game in the Big Ten this weekend.

No. 25 Michigan (5-2, 3-0) @ Illinois (5-2, 3-1)

The Michigan Wolverines roll into Champaign, Ill., winners of their last five games and looking to pounce on the Fighting Illini while they're down after their first Big Ten defeat last week at the hands of the Iowa Hawkeyes. With the uncertainty of whether running back Mike Hart will play after suffering an ankle injury toward the end of the first half last week, Michigan will turn to Chad Henne and Mario Manningham who got back on track in a 48-21 victory over Purdue. If the Wolverines can escape out of this weekend with another Big Ten win, they will have likely eliminated yet another team from the conference title race as well as taken one more step in getting to that game at the end of the season unscathed.

When Michigan has the ball...

All year long Michigan has ridden the back of the Heisman candidate and the country's leading rusher, Mike Hart, and although his status uncertain heading into Saturday night, the Wolverines find themselves in a fairly comfortable position. Chad Henne has seemingly gotten back on track and finally settled into a midseason groove after throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns against the Boilermakers last week. Mario Manningham also came back strong after missing one game for disciplinary reasons and tallied eight catches for just under 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Purdue secondary. The Illinois secondary has been exploited for much of the season, and whether Hart plays or not, Michigan will undoubtedly look to utilize their receivers to create mismatches. If Manningham comes out with the speed and aggressiveness that he showed last week and Adrian Arrington continues his strong play alongside third wideout Greg Mathews, the Michigan offense could have a field day against an Illinois secondary that allows more than 255 yards/game through the air.

It would be a huge lift for Michigan should Hart be able to go, however, as the Michigan offense will look to control the clock as they have done for much of the season with a rushing attack that averages better than 200 yards/game. J Lehman and the Illinois linebacking corp will have to continue their strong play and completely shut down the Michigan rushing attack if they are to have a chance in this game and they have faired well for much of the season allowing 106 yards/game on the ground, good for fourth in the conference. The Illinois defense must make the Wolverines one dimensional and make them pass the ball to win the game. If Hart is able to get going, especially early on, it will be a long night for the Illini defense and long breaks on the sideline for the Ilini offense. If Hart is unable to go, Carlos Brown would likely be the main option at running back with the additional backfield injury to sophomore Brandon Minor who also encountered an ankle problem last weekend. Bottom line...If Michigan is able to play with a balanced attack rushing and passing the football and is able to put together long sustained drives, Illinois will have their hands full and will have a hard time winning a scoring battle.

When Illinois has the ball...

The biggest key for Illinois on the offensive side of the football will be their ability or lack thereof to get running back Rashard Mendenhall going early on. Quarterback Juice Williams is a major threat with his legs as well, but with his playing time being threatened by backup Eddie McGee's increased play, the rushing attack has to remain the mainstay for the Illinois offense to take the pressure off of the signal caller, no matter who is taking the snaps. Williams and McGee have both found Arrelious Benn to be the go-to receiver on the outside, but their inability to throw the ball consistently has hurt the Illini at times this season, namely against Iowa last weekend. Michigan will come out looking to take away the rushing game right away and if Williams does not pose a threat with his arm, the offense will experience plenty of three-and-outs. Williams must be able to add the threat of the pass to the offense and will have to make plays with his legs as well in order to keep that extra defender out of the box in defending the run.

The Michigan defense has played very well at times this season, but what it showed last week that it hadn't shown for much, if any, of the season so far was consistency. The secondary has played lights out in the five wins this season, allowing just 187.5 yards/game passing in those five victories. The defense has also created pressure up front and has recorded 25 sacks this season. Mendenhall rushed for just 67 yards on 15 carries a week ago in Iowa City against the Hawkeyes and without the threat of a consistent passing game, he will likely find himself in a similar position this week. The Michigan linebackers, led by senior Shawn Crable, have steadily improved throughout the season and have allowed just 77.8 yards/game rushing in their last five games. If Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English can find a way to mix blitzes similarly to the way he did last week against the Boilermakers, the Wolverine defense should be able to create a number of third-down-and-long situations for the Illinois offense. If Illinois cannot develop the threat of a passing game, it will play right into the hands of the Michigan defense, allowing them to bring that extra defender into the box to defend the run and creating a pass rush.

Prediction

Whether Hart plays or not, Michigan will be able to possess the football and the Wolverine defense will come out with enough energy and enthusiasm to create problems for the Illinois offense. Henne will continue his solid play at quarterback and Manningham and Arrington will come up big for the Michigan offense in a matchup where the passing game will likely be heavily called upon.

Michigan- 27 Illinois- 16

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