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The Myths of Statistics, Ch. 1

A continuing saga - sometimes the numbers just don't crunch down to reality.

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In the Moneyball era, fans of the Cincinnati Reds should feel so lucky to see in mid-August Adam Dunn with a .365 on base average and 32 home runs, and Junior hanging at .388 and 27 dingers. There's a world of difference in the two players, though, and inside lies the reason most of us thought Dunn would be dumped at the trade deadline.  Griffey is in the midst of a renaissance, while Dunn is struggling toward mediocrity. Exhibit A - in the same number of at bats, Dunn has whiffed a whopping 50 more times than Griffey. Griffey, with fewer hits than Dunn, carries an on base percentage 23 points higher. Griffey walks because pitchers still have some fear in the recess of the mind. Watch a Reds game -- Dunn walks when that 3-2 pitch just misses. Still, to the mind of the common fan, one would think that with two players in the same offense looking to push 40 home runs for the year, the Reds should be in contention. Well folks, as always, the W-L column is still the most important statistic. Until next time, live in sabremetric peace. 

Tags: cincinnati reds