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The Big Ten season is winding down my friends.  As it winds down, I wanted to follow up on a previous article that I had written on January 30th.  The topic du jour...How does the Buckeye Basketball stand as far as its NCAA hopes?  Since January 30th, they have had a lot of the same:  Some wins, some losses, some frustration, and ultimately still no punched card to the NCAA dance (not even mythically).

There is still some work to do, and The Ohio State University has since maybe even teetered closer to the edge of where they stood back in late January.  Let's take a look at where we were during the first analysis, and compare it to where we now stand three games to go in the regular season:

End of January Record:14-5 (4-4 in Big 10 Play)  Winning Percentages of .737 and .500 respectively 

Record to Date:  18-8 (8-7 in Big 10 Play)  Winning Percentages of .692 and .533 respectively                                 

A look at this season's accomplishments, and lack thereof leaves one with the realization that Ohio State still has some work to do.

Synopsis:  Mixed.  Yes, the Big 10 record is better, but the overall winning percentage is down from where it was.  What Ohio State has going for it is that the Big 10 remains where it has been all year:  As the 2nd rated RPI conference.  The in-conference losses will look much better than had they lost more out of conference.  Still, if you want to hover around .500, you are going to remain close if not on, the proverbial bubble.  Another troubling thing when looking at the overall record is that it may be hard to get much over that 20 win plateau that seems to be the magic number to be included in talk of the Big Dance.  With three regular season games remaining, they must win some combination of two games, or put them together between the regular season and the Big 10 Tournament.

End of January RPI: 22

RPI to Date:  40

Synopsis:  This is probably the most troubling thing about OSU's Resume.  The RPI has serious weight to the selection committe when it comes to crossing out teams that are all fighting for the few final spots into the NCAAs.  The bad news is that OSU's RPI is plunging to levels that may place it even more squarely on the bubble.  The good news to all of this is simple: If they keep winning, the RPI will obviously bump up into the safety zone.  Their RPI has plummeted because of additional losses as well as some quality wins now looking suspect.  Both Notre Dame and Miami, FL. do not look like the teams that everyone thought they would be.  At this point, the most impressive win actually remains as Butler who now has an RPI of 20.  Ohio State, sadly, has not beaten anyone with an RPI higher than this. 

Quality Wins:  Butler, Purdue, at Miami (maybe)

Bad Losses:  West Virginia by 37 (home), at Northwestern, at Illinois by 18

Synopsis:  As mentioned above, the Quality wins are disappearing because of the way that things have played out.  On the other side, none of the "bad losses" have turned out to look better.  The only thing left on the regular schedule to snatch another quality win from is the game at Purdue.  You can always make up for it in the Big 10 Tournament, but quite frankly, a win over Michigan State would probably be the only thing to really boost this after the regular season game against the Boilermakers.

A look at this season's accomplishments, and lack thereof leaves one with the realization that Ohio State still has some work to do.  I hate to already plug the game at Purdue in the loss column, but you have to believe that the Bucks will probably go down in West Lafyette.  If they do, the best OSU can do in the regular season is a 10-8 Big Ten record, and an overall record of 20-9.  That being said, I still stand by my original comments and will project what Ohio State must do to reserve an all expenses paid trip to the Office Pools across America with the remaining three games:

3-0:  We are in, no questions asked. End of Story

2-1:  I still believe that Buckeye Nation can rest easy because for once, the Big 10 argument will help the team out.

1-2:  Danger Thaddeus.  If that one win is at Purdue, things look a little better, but if not, you better cross your fingers for a win or two in the Big Ten tournament.

0-3: This would mean that Ohio State finishes below .500 in the Big 10, and probably somewhere between seventh and ninth in the Big Ten.  I still think that only six to seven teams will get into the NCAAs without some team making a surprise run in the Big Ten Tournament.  If OSU loses the last three games of the season (which I don't believe will happen), then you better hope that Michigan State has a couple players sprain ankles, and Ohio State plays the best they have all year to win in Indianapolis.

So, what do I think will happen?  The two easiest games to call (but no lock) are a loss at Purdue and a win against Northwestern at home.  I am going to be a big believer that Thad and Co. will be able to come through at Iowa as well.  If the remaining performance turns out this way, then hello Billy Packer.  If not, throw your hands in the air and guess like everyone else.  Let the March Madness begin!

Tags: ohio state basketball