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Published January 28, 2010 Blind Optimism? Nah. Just Cold, Hard Math...The 30-game Countdown to Either Playoff Bliss or Extinction (and yes, the former is still possible) began one week ago this evening, and got off to a pretty good start with that 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins -- in Beantown, no less. Those of us who watched that game -- and I certainly hope there are still plenty of us -- watch the Jackets come together in the third, after trailing after two periods. We saw Antoine Vermette score the equalizer about seven minutes in. Then, in a strange twist of fate, we saw the inexplicable. We saw a team get hosed on a penalty in the final 90 seconds of a tied game. The inexplicable part was that for once, the team that got hosed was not the Jackets. "[In Boston] we saw the inexplicable. We saw a team get hosed on a penalty in the final 90 seconds of a tied game. [And it] was not the Jackets." For those who didn't see it, yes, you read that right. For once, the opposing team got hosed by a very late penalty. And as far as I know, Detroit has not frozen over. Then the Blue Jackets capitalized on the double minor penalty, as former Buckeye RJ Umberger scored on the power play with 1:16 left. As time expired in Boston, my mind immediately shifted, and started bouncing all over the place envisioning what this win could mean. In a situation where the Blue Jackets would probably have to win the five out of every six games from that point, the Jackets won a tough hockey game. Again they could finally signal the turnaround Columbus so badly needs. The desperately-needed win that would be the first step toward the Pla… SPLAT!!!! A 4-2 loss in St.-freakin’-Paul, Minnesota, in which two goals in an 18-second span came about 59 minutes and 38 seconds too late. Back to Columbus, after losing two out of three on the road. Back to five games below .500. Back to another couple nights of looking at the Western Conference standings from 14th place. Back to the friendly confines of Nationwide Arena to face the much-maligned (and overly clichéd) “Darth Vader” nemesis, the Nashville Predators. Then something happened. After a fairly evenly-played first period, and a frightening second period, in which the Blue Jackets took about 10 minutes to even register a shot, their play picked up, as Derick Brassard got one past Pekka Rinne. Then Kristian Huselius and Frederick Modin scored 39 seconds apart in the third, and bought me some Wendy's Chili. Then, the good guys started playing scary again, allowing two goals about 5 1/2 minutes apart. However, as shaky as that was, the Blue Jackets managed to hold the lead, and even got the crowd going with a couple close calls on empty net. Nothing ever comes easy for the Blue Jackets these days, but I have to tell you ladies and gentlemen, a win over Nashville always makes me happy. Two points under any circumstances makes me happy, especially at this point of the season. The Blue Jackets have 27 games left, and they’re 14th in the Western Conference with 51 points. What does that mean for the Jackets’ Playoff chances? "When one considers what happened during the December Disaster, one realizes the Jackets are looking at one hell of an uphill battle." Well… let's do some math. At this moment, on paper, there is some reason for optimism when looking at the standings. The Jackets are 13 points ahead of the Oilers, and only eight points behind Calgary and Detroit. So, that really doesn't look too bad does it? Well, as long as you don’t look too closely. Now keep in mind that the Edmonton Oilers have only played 51 games, compared to the Blue Jackets’ 55, which could mean an additional eight points for them, which narrows the gap between Columbus and Edmonton. Similarly, Calgary and Detroit have played only 53 games, which potentially widens the gap between those two teams and Columbus. Then again, the shorter way of putting this is to just say, let's set a benchmark of 94 points at the end of the season. That's two more points than Columbus had for its seventh-place finish last year. The Western Conference is generally tougher than the East in terms of qualifying for the Playoffs (just my opinion, but look at the Eastern Conference standings and the widening gap between fifth and sixth), so I don't think you can ever take 92 points as a given for a playoff spot. So, the Blue Jackets need 43 points to hit 94. There are many combinations over the last 27 games that will get them there, but let's just say -- from an idealistic standpoint -- that the Jackets would need to win 21 games and allow one overtime loss in the next 27 games. That gives them five regulation losses to play with. When one considers what happened during the December Disaster, one realizes the Jackets are looking at one hell of an uphill battle. Many writers have written the Jackets off already. They may even be right. Maybe they’re the sane ones. I don’t claim to be normal. Then again, stranger things have happened. I mean, the Detroit Red Wings in ninth?!?!? At the end of January?!?!? I know I certainly never thought I'd see the day. It comes down to this: Looking at how the Blue Jackets have done so far this year, one might assume that golf is in their future in mid-April. And I won't kid you... I'm still not writing them off. This is a pretty good team that just doesn't seem to know it yet. Now, realistically, there is no more blind optimism this season. Make no mistake, the Columbus Blue Jackets backs are against the wall. The margin for error is absolute zero. If they lose six games in regulation in these last 27 games, they could be toast. Lose seven... and they're probably toast. Lose eight... they're toast. But they’re not toast yet. Go Jackets!
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