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The Reds must offset the loss of veteran offensive players such as Griffey and Dunn by counting on their pitching staff to perform

In case you haven't noticed, while Alex Rodriguez was telling half-truth's about his over the counter steroids that he got from his cousin, the Reds and Indians both had Pitchers and Catchers report this week.  That means that the annual feeling of optimism is prevalent in the Reds spring training home (for the last time) in Sarasota, Florida.  Have you heard that they have a lot of young talent that just might surprise the National League Central this year?  If things fall just right, these boys of summer with a ton of upside might just contend for something other than a tease of close to a .500 record at the All Star Break.

As a Reds fan, I have heard this all too often.  It seems like the first professional baseball franchise is always building towards something.  Does anyone remember when the team had a nucleus of young stars such as Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Pokey Reese, and Aaron Boone that were peaking at just the right time to coincide with the opening of their brand spankin' new Great American Ball Park?  I do, about eight years later; they are all gone with not a single sniff at coming close to any kind of championship, let alone second in the division.  The truth is, the Cincinnati Reds have never really had what it takes to contend since 1995 when they last made the post season.

That is the beautiful thing about Spring Training:  Everyone is in first place; with optimism flying high that this could be the year (I am getting a mental flash of the ivy walls of Wrigley Field right now).  The dose of reality is that everyone's magic number is 162 and only eight teams will make the post season, In recent year's past, the only thing to look forward to with the Cincinnati Reds is the classic Marty Brennaman ripping the team moments that tend to occur at least three times a week (I secretly wonder if Chef Ramsey could do better).

So the question all of us Reds fans can ask is:  Does this year have any reason to be different?  To answer that question, I think you need to start at a position that any small market team must be successful at if they wish to play deep into October: Pitching.  The reason the Minnesota Twins and Oakland A's continue to make runs at the postseason can be mostly attributed to the arms they can throw at you.  It is the great equalizer of the hoarding of offensive talent by the large market teams that is a part of the game these days.  It is the one area of stability that can weather the storm of offensive slumps and losing streaks throughout the long MLB season.  They continue to develop solid pitching in their farm system and roll them out year after year.

I am afraid that this version of the Reds will have to rely on the pitching as there are way too many holes on defense and in the batting lineup to expect any other area to carry them through.

For the first time in as long as I can remember, you can at least say that the Reds have more answers than questions in their starting rotation.  More than likely, only the fifth pitcher in a five man rotation will be up for grabs this year.  With Edison Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto, the Reds most certainly have their top four starters.  Yes, I said that right.  The Reds have four starting pitchers almost assuredly etched in stone PRIOR to spring training.  That statement alone puts the pitching staff well above any that the Redlegs have had coming back in recent memory.  The cupboard is not entirely dry in the fifth spot either.  If the under-performing phenom Homer Bailey ever reaches his hype, the Reds could easily roll out an ultra talented fifth guy to fill the spot.  If Bailey continues to struggle, I am fine with the pinch hitter Micah Owings moonlighting as the fifth starter.

Though the starting rotation looks good on paper, there are still some questions that will need to play out:  Will Edison Volquez be able to put up the kind of year he had last year and sustain it all season (remember he faded a bit after the All-Star break)?  Can a healthy Aaron Harang bounce back and do the things that we are accustomed to him doing?  Will Johnny Cueto be more consistent and pitch up to his potential in most of his starts rather than the other way around?  Lastly, can Bronson Arroyo start the season off in a groove, or will his JTM Commercial Spots outperform his pitching between the chalk (and I think we can all agree that those are a disaster)?  The bottom line is if these guys all do what they are capable of, it should at the least, resemble a very good staff. 

What about the guys that get paid to answer the phone? It can also be argued that the bullpen is pretty stable heading into the spring.  You've got a qualified, steady closer in Francisco Cordero, and pretty solid setup men between Jared Burton and Mike Lincoln.  I am crossing my fingers, eyes, and toes that Dusty Baker does not fall in love with David Weathers again this year.  He is not horrendous, but anytime you have to hope for a ball to be hit at someone to get an out, you may be dancing with lady luck a litte too ofter.  Hopefully someone else in the middle relief staff will step up.  In fact, if there is an area of weakness for the pen (okay there is), it would be the depth.  After the quality of the first few, it begins to drop off significantly.

As I write this, I realize that I too am having a Spring Fling with optimism.  Just to temper it a bit, I feel obligated to touch on the other areas of the team.  I am afraid that this version of the Reds will have to rely on the pitching as there are way too many holes on defense and in the batting lineup to expect any other area to carry them through.  Youth and inconsistency abounds at nearly every turn.  Still, if the pitching holds up, these areas should be good enough to at least not lose games like years past.  At least we will not have to endure another season of home run or bust/strike out.  What Mr. Red will be asking you to cheer about this year is a lot of small ball and base running.

So are you ready to drink the Reds Kool-Aid?  I would love to, but too many of my summers have been relegated to waiting for Ohio State Football to even start to get my hopes up.  Despite the unparalleled misery, there is something different about the shape that this team comes into the season at, and it starts on the mound.  The guys that touch the ball on every play will have to pan out to make a difference between the Reds being a Dark Horse and us Reds fans having to endure another dark course.  Still, if the young talent does not reach its potential this year, things always look good for the future right?

Tags: cincinnati reds, major league baseball