Weekly college and pro football predictions against the spread.
Each week I make picks against the spread for both college and pro football. Lines used below are as they were when picks were made, usually on Thursday or Friday. For fun and information only of course!
2007 final results: 62-53. Not a bad year, but it could have been a great year without a cold streak in some college bowl games that I should have avoided (but picked anyway because my fans demanded it!).
College Bowl Game and NFL Playoff pics: Last week 3-1, season 63-50-3.
College: 31-25-2 Pro: 32-25-1
Bowl games are notoriously difficult to pick correctly, so I've chosen what I think is the best of the bunch and crossed my fingers. NFL playoff picks are almost as hard, but at least are somewhat more predictable in terms of getting an all out performance from both teams.
NFL Playoffs
1. (L) Atlanta (-1) at Arizona
2. Baltimore (-3) at Miami
3. Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota
College Bowl Games
1. (L) LSU at Georgia Tech (-4)
2. (L) Boston College (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
3. (W) Michigan St. at Georgia (-7)
4. (W) Virginia Tech (+2.5) at Cincinnati
5. (W) Utah (+10) at Alabama
6. Florida (-3) at Oklahoma
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Dec. 28 Last week 1-3, season 60-49-3.
College: 31-25-2 Pro: 29-24-1
Without a doubt, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season and the college bowl games are the most challenging for handicappers. Last year, at the urging of a few of my followers, I went against my better judgment and picked bowl games I should have stayed away from. I'm not repeating that mistake this year, but I can't avoid the NFL regular season, so here we go.... (look for some college bowl picks to be published Sunday or Monday).
Pro
1. (W) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-10.5)
2. (L) N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-7)
3. (W) Denver at San Diego (-9)
4. (W) New England (-5.5) at Buffalo
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Dec. 21 Last week 1-2, season 59-46-3.
College: 31-25-2 Pro: 28-21-1
Just the pros again for this weekend, look for my bowl picks starting later this week. I always say that the last 2 or 3 weeks of the NFL season and the college bowl games are the most difficult to pick, so it pays to do extra homework this time of year and try to avoid teams that may have a Jekyll and Hyde complex, but unfortunately that's often not enough as teams that have every reason to play well often fall on their faces.
Pro
1. (L) N.Y. Jets (-3.5) at Seattle
2. (L) Houston (-7) at Oakland
3. (L) Atlanta at Minnesota (-3)
4. (W) Arizona at New England (-8.5)
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Dec. 14-15. Last week 4-2, season 58-44-3.
College: 31-25-2 Pro: 27-19-1
Solid picks last week at 4-2, I'll take it. College games off the screen until the bowl games start, so it's only the pros for this week.
Pro
1. (L) Washington (-6.5) at Cincinnati
2. (L) Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5)
3. (W) Cleveland at Philadelphia (-14)
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Dec. 6-7. Last week 7-4, season 54-42-3.
College: 29-24-2 Pro: 25-18-1
A good weekend last week could have been great if Indy had been able to score more than 3 points on offense against Cleveland! It's the end of the season and as the games get more important, the pickin' gets harder. Theme for this week: forget the underdogs.
College
1. (L) South Florida at West Virginia (-7)
2. (W) Washington at California (-35)
3. (W) Alabama at Florida (-10) (has an undefeated, #1 ranked team EVER been such a big underdog?)
Pro
1. (W) Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-13.5)
2. (W) Cleveland at Tennessee (-14)
3. (L) New England (-4.5) at Seattle
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Nov. 27, 29-30. Last week 3-5, season 47-38-3.
College: 25-23-2 Pro: 22-15-1
Some truly bad picks last week (I swear off picking Notre Dame for good!), but that's going to happen every now and then. Starting the weekend off early with picks for all 3 pro games on Thursday for those that like a reason to cheer for something today besides the table spread. The picks the whole weekend favor the favorites, to say the least.
College
1. (L) Kansas at Missouri (-16)
2. (W) Auburn at Alabama (-14)
3. (W) Florida (-17) at Florida St.
4. (W) Oklahoma (-7) at Oklahoma St.
5. (W) Notre Dame at USC (-32)
Pro
1. (W) Tennessee (-11) at Detroit
2. (W) Seattle at Dallas (-12)
3. (L) Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia
4. (W) Baltimore (-7) at Cincinnati
5. (L) San Francisco at Buffalo (-6.5)
6. (L) Indianapolis (-5) at Cleveland
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Nov. 22-23. Last week 5-2, season 44-33-3.
College: 24-20-2 Pro: 20-13-1
Another 5-2 record last week. Could have easily been 6-1 if the Buckeyes hadn't given up a meaningless touchdown at the very end of the game for the second time this year (Minnesota being the other) to cost me a win. Oh well, can't really complain about 5-2 if I can keep it up. Just the picks again this week.
College
1. (W) BYU at Utah (-7)
2. (L) Michigan St. (+15.5) at Penn St.
3. (L) Syracuse at Notre Dame (-20)
4. (L) Duke at Virginia Tech (-17)
Pro
1. (W) Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-10.5)
2. (W) Tampa Bay (-7) at Detroit
3. (L) NY Giants at Arizona (+3)
4. (L) Oakland at Denver (-9)
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Nov. 15-16. Last week 5-2, season 39-31-3.
College: 21-19-2 Pro: 18-12-1
Nice job going 5-2 last week. Need to do it again to build up a little cushion before the always tough end of year games in college. No comments this week, just the picks.
College
1. (W) Connecticut (-10) at Syracuse
2. (W) UCLA (-6.5) at Washington
3. (W) Nebraska (-6) at Kansas State
4. (L) Ohio State at Illinois (under 46)
Pro
1. (W) New Orleans (-5) at Kansas City
2. (W) San Diego at Pittsburght (under 42.5)
3. (L )Baltimore (+7) at NY Giants
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Nov. 8-9. Last week 4-4, season 34-29-3.
College: 18-18-2 Pro: 16-11-1
Even-steven (steeven? stephen?) last week across the board. 2-2 for both college and pro. As usual, after the results were in, the winners seemed obvious and the losers didn't play as expected. Unpredictable might make sporting events much more interesting, but it sure is confounding to those that try to predict them! On to the picks for this week...
College
1. (W) Ohio State (-11) at Northwestern - The Wildcats are occasionally the Buckeyes nemisis, but more often they get rolled by Ohio State.
2. (W) Alabama (-3.5) at LSU - Sorry Tiger fans, this won't be your year to get revenge on Saban.
3. (L) Kansas (+1.5) at Nebraska - Still trying to figure out why this line isn't 3-4 points in Kansas' favor.
4. (W) Arizona St. (-14) at Washington - A bettor's rule is to never ask a bad team to win for you, and Arizona St. probably falls into that category, but Washington's kind of bad is at a historic level, so give the points here .
Pro
1. (W) Tennessee (-3) at Chicago - The Titans will eventually lose a game this year, but it won't be this week.
2. (L) Seattle at Miami (-8) - The downtrodden Seahawks must travel across country for an early game again, and the Dolphins are a team on the rise and building some momentum.
3. (W) New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia - The 7-1 defending Super Bowl champs are the underdog? Take the points.
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Nov. 1-2. Last week 3-4, season 30-25-3.
College: 16-16-2 Pro: 14-9-1
In this business, frustrating last minute losses seem to outnumber the "lucky" last minute wins by about a 5 to 1 margin, but whoever said life was fair? Highly favored teams that give up a meaningless last minute touchdown (or two!) to lose the spread are the number one culprit, but other favored teams that seem to lose all ability to score any points at all are a close second. Last week was a good example of these type of games, and somehow avoiding them is the real key to winning a lot more than losing. The other common thread to losing weeks, as I'm sure many of you out there can relate to, is that the two or three games you came very close to picking, but for some reason didn't, invariably end up winning, and the ones you replaced them with end up losing.
College
1. (L) Northwestern at Minnesota (-7) - Alert! The Gophers have a legitimate shot at the Rose Bowl!
2. (L) Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (-5) - I'm not an Irish fan (of the football team!), but they've been pretty good to me this year. Home field makes the difference in this one.
3. (W) Nebraska at Oklahoma (-21) - The Sooners have too much offense for Nebraska to keep it close, and the Sooners roll at home to stay among the nation's elite.
4. (W) Florida (-6.5) at Georgia - This game could well be close, but the overall better talent of the Gators should let them win by at least a touchdown, plus they are highly motivated after Georgia's run on the field stunt from last year.
Pro
1. (L) Jacksonville (-7) at Cincinnati - The Jaguars are a much better team than the Bengals, and this is a game they must win.
2. (W) Philadelphia (-6.5) at Seattle - The Eagles are getting healthy and are simply a much better team than the Seahawks right now, plus they need this win to stay in the NFC East hunt.
3. (W) New England (+6.5) at Indianapolis - Even without Tom Brady I like the odds of the Patriots and Belichick getting that many points, especially against a Colts team that has been less than impressive in most games this year.
4. (L) Pittsburgh at Washington (-2) - The Steelers injury problems and troubles on the offensive line will prove too much to overcome for a road Monday night game against a solid Redskins team.
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Oct. 25-26. Last week 4-2-1, season 27-21-3.
College: 14-14-2 Pro: 13-7-1
Lost a couple of close ones last week (ok, so the Jets game was a push) but still came out ahead. Lots of big games this week, let's see how the many road favorites will fair.
College
1. (L) Illinois (-2.5) at Wisconsin - Badgers are spiraling downward.
2. (W) Michigan St. (-4) at Michigan - Spartans recover from last week's bad game against Ohio St. and give the Wolverines some payback.
3. (W) Notre Dame (-10) at Washington - Huskies are dogs.
4. (L) Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-24) - The undefeated Cardinals are a great story, but no one knows about them. Eastern Michigan will get their lesson Saturday afternoon.
Pro
1. (L) Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5) - New head coach Mike Singletary will suit up and lead the 49'ers defense to a shut out of the struggling Seahawks.
2. (W) Oakland at Baltimore (-7) - Ravens defense will dominate at home. Rumor has it that they have a bounty on Al Davis.
3. (L) Tampa Bay (+2) at Dallas - Cowboys problems run deeper than most people think.
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Oct. 18-19. Last week 3-4, season 23-19-2.
College: 12-12-2 Pro: 11-7
Ok, last week's East Carolina pick was simply horrible, but Ohio State not scoring an offensive touchdown against Purdue? Who saw that one coming? This is one of those weeks where it's hard to find many solid picks at first glance, but upon further investigation...
College
1. (L) Stanford (+2.5) at UCLA - UCLA has burned me a couple of times this year already (they only play good when I pick against them!), but this Cardinal team is hungry and playing for an eventual bowl berth.
2. (L) Miami at Bowling Green (-9.5) - A big MAC battle for the birds. Falcons prevail over Redhawks.
3. (W) Purdue at Northwestern (-4) - Boilermakers have to go on the road again and have a letdown after last week's all out effort against Ohio State.
4. (W) Michigan at Penn St. (-25) - JoePa's been good to me so far this year, and there'll be no looking ahead to the Nittany Lion's game against Ohio State next week. Penn St. would love to crush RichRod and the Wolverines, and this is a great opportunity to do so.
Pro
1. (W) Tennessee (-8) at Kansas City - I'm surprised this line isn't 10 or 12, it should be.
2. (W) Pittsburgh (-9.5) at Cincinnati - Rested Steelers squad should have no problem handling the Bengals.
3. (T) New York Jets (-3) at Oakland - Two teams heading in opposite directions. Take the team heading in the right direction.
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Oct. 11-12. Last week 6-1, season 20-15-2.
College: 10-10-2 Pro: 10-5
Finally had a few breaks last week and went 6-1. Not bad, not bad at all.
College
1. (W) Toledo (+16.5) at Michigan - With the exception of the Wisconsin fluke, picking against the Wolverines has been good to me. The Mud Hens would have a chance to win this game.
2. (L) East Carolina (-6) at Virginia - These Pirates should be at least a touchdown better than these Cavaliers even if Lebron James was lining up for them.
3. (L) Purdue at Ohio State (-18.5) - The Buckeyes often play down to their opponent and don't run up the score, but in this game giving almost 3 touchdowns shouldn't be a problem unless the defense lets up in the 4th quarter like they did against Minnesota.
4. (W) LSU at Florida (-6) - I normally avoid big games like this one because it's too easy for it to go either way, but in this case I think the Gators are about to get on one of their patented rolls, plus playing at home they should be able to keep the Tigers off the scoreboard enough to cover this spot.
Pro
1. (L) Carolina (+2) at Tampa Bay - The Panthers, and especially their defense, are underrated and will win this game outright.
2. (W) Green Bay (-1.5) at Seattle - The Seahawks are horrible and show no signs of getting better soon.
3. (L) Baltimore (+4.5) at Indianapolis - The Ravens defense is great, the Colts seem to be unsure of themselves, despite a very lucky win against the Texans last week. Take the points.
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Oct. 4-5. Last week 3-3-1, season 14-14-2.
Great week in the pros last week (3-0) offset by some incredibly bad luck with the college picks. Ohio St. gave up two otherwise meaningless touchdowns on incredible 4th down conversions late in the game, Wisconsin had a second half crumble of historic proportions, and Fresno St. somehow allowed 31 points to a horrible UCLA offense. Such is the life of a true gambler! Continued sound reasoning with hopefully a little better luck will make this week a better one...
College
1. (W) Penn St. (-13.5) at Purdue - Stick with a team when they're this hot.
2. (W) Florida (-24) at Arkansas - The Hogs suffer the consequences for the Gators bad outcome last week.
3. (W) Illinois (+2) at Michigan - The Wolverines got lucky last week, but it's not enough to cover up what is still a pretty bad team. This line would be 10 points in the other direction had Wisconsin not had an epic choke in the second half last Saturday. Back to reality for Rich and Wolverine fans.
4. (W) Missouri (-10) at Nebraska - Simply too much offense for Missouri against a still suspect Nebraska defense, and 4th ranked Missouri will be looking to pile it on to make up for 15 straight losses in Lincoln.
Pro
1. (W) Seattle at NY Giants (-7) - Maybe there's a chance that the Giants don't cover this one (yes, I admit there is at least a chance), but does anyone think that barring some strange happenings that New York isn't a touchdown better than this inferior Seattle team traveling all the way across the country?
2. (L) Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4) - Jaguars are too tough at home on national TV for a banged up Steelers team missing even more key players now.
3. (W) Tennessee (+3) at Baltimore - I'm surprised this line isn't reversed, especially with the Ravens coming off a brutal Monday night loss and having to face another very good, very physical team in the 4-0 Titans.
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Sept. 27-28. Last week 4-2, season 11-11-1.
Winning record last week at 4-2. So what, you say? Run the numbers and see what happens if you go 4-2 each week for the season. Goodbye job! Ok, let's try the picks again without comment. Who cares what the reasons are as long as I pick the winners, right? Here we go...
College
1. (L) Minnesota at Ohio St. (-20)
2. (T) Western Michigan (-4) at Temple
3. (L) Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan
4. (L) Fresno State (-7) at UCLA
Pro
1. (W) San Diego (-7) at Oakland
2. (W) Baltimore (+6) at Pittsburgh
3. (W) Minnesota at Tennessee (-3)
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Sept. 20-21. Last week 3-2-1, season 7-9-1.
Winning week last week, but just barely. Still, I'll take it. Should have realized the OSU-USC game for what it was, a sucker bet, but it made sense at the time. Pro team trends are starting to come into focus now. Picks this week are made without comment. Hey, you try being without power all week at your home and office (the big Ohio wind storm of 2008) and see if you don't cut a few corners to save some time!
College
1. (L) Iowa (+1) at Pittsburgh
2. (W) Temple at Penn St. (-28)
3. (W) Florida (-7) at Tennessee
Pro
1. (W) Kansas City at Atlanta (-5.5)
2. (W) Houston at Tennessee (-5)
3. (L) Miami at New England (-12.5)
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Sept. 13-14. Last week 3-4, season 4-7.
So close to having a winning record last week, but I stupidly went against my better judgment in thinking Charlie Weis knew what he was doing, and the Bengals turned out to be much worse than everyone thought.
College
1. (L) Ohio State (+11.5) at USC - This is not a homer pick. The Buckeyes had a bad game last week, and the only reason this line jumped as high as it did is because of their poor showing in the Ohio U. game. Does anyone really think that the same Ohio State team that showed up last Saturday will be the same team that shows up this Saturday? Perhaps they won't stay under the spread, but the odds are certainly in their favor and getting this many points is too much to pass up.
2. (W) Penn St. (-28) at Syracuse - Yes, that's a lot of points, but if Penn St. doesn't win this game by at least 35, it's only because they didn't care. I say JoePa and their seniors will keep them focused as they have a chance to have a great year.
3. (Tie) Georgia (-7) at South Carolina - The Gamecocks are routinely overrated, and this year is no exception. The Bulldogs will put on a show in their conference opener before heading out west next week for a huge game at Arizona St.
Free advice of the week: stay AWAY from the Notre Dame - Michigan game.
Pro
1. (W) Tennessee (+1) at Cincinnati - How are the Bengals favored in this game? Despite the Vince Young distraction this week, I don't see the Titans letting themselves lose this one.
2. (W) Miami at Arizona (-6.5) - The Cardinals are a team on the rise, and their home opener will give them a chance to prove it against a still bad Dolphins team, certainly enough to win by one touchdown.
3. (L) Pittsburgh (-6) at Cleveland - It pains me to pick this one, but until the Browns show the ability to reverse the trend in this series, it's hard not to see the Steelers winning this game by at least a touchdown. Cleveland hopes to avoid another embarrassment on national TV.
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Sept. 6-7. Started off the season 1-3 last week. Totally blew the Louisville pick, but come on, did you see that Tennessee/UCLA game? Should have been a gimme. And if Wisconsin hadn't fallen asleep in the second quarter, they would have rolled over the Zips by plenty. To top it off, I changed my pick from Bowling Green (which beat Pittsburgh outright) to Louisville (what was I thinking?) at the last minute. Ok, enough of the sour grapes, on to week 2 (week 1 for the pros), with a heaving leaning toward the favorites.
College
1. (L) Boston College (-7) over Georgia Tech - A rebuilding year for Georgia Tech, and more of a reloading year for Boston College. Should cover this game easily at home.
2. (W) Penn St. (-15) over Oregon State - Second straight tough road game for Oregon St. to open the season. JoePa's team will have the advantage and should score plenty on a Beaver's defense that gave up 36 to Stanford last week.
3. (L) Notre Dame (-21) over San Diego State - I won't pick the Irish very often, but Charlie Weis will be looking to get the season off on the right foot this year and the Aztecs lost their opener last week to Cal Poly. Enough said.
4. (W) Florida (-22.5) over Miami - Remember when this used to be a good game? Not any longer, Gators will crush the Hurricanes this year.
Pro
1. (W) NY Jets (-3) at Miami - Sorry Tuna, your team still stinks. Brett Favre gets his New York career off to a good start.
2. (L) Cincinnati (-2) at Baltimore - The Bengals have enough offense to score against the Ravens, and Baltimore is starting a rookie quarterback in his first NFL game, so don't look for a lot of points from Baltimore. If Cincinnati doesn't win this one, it'll be a long season for the Bengals.
3. (L) Indianapolis (-10) over Chicago - Peyton Manning doesn't play in the preseason? Doesn't matter, Colts roll at home on Sunday night.
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Aug. 30-31. College picks only, the Pro's join the fun next week. Early in the season is typically a good time to spot some mismatches that the point spread hasn't picked up on yet, thus the prevalence towards going with the favorites, with one noteable exception.
1. (L) Tennessee (-7) over UCLA - Rick Neuheisel will eventually have success at UCLA, but not in this first game of the year after losing his top quarterbacks to injury before the season even started.
2. (L) Wisconsin (-26.5) over Akron - The game is in Madison and the Badgers should maul an over matched Zips team that will struggle to find a way to score on Wisconsin's defense.
3. (L) Louisville (-3.5) over Kentucky - Too much offensive firepower for the Cardinals against a rebuilding Wildcats team.
4. (W) Utah (+3) at Michigan - I almost avoided this one simply because so many other outlets are predicting a Utes victory, but they truly are a very good team and should give a young Michigan team more than they can handle, despite the early momentum that the Wolverines may enjoy as Rich Rodriguez begins his coaching career for the maize and blue.
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