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Published February 7, 2011 Pigskin Picks for the 2010 Season - College and Pro Football PredictionsEach week I make picks against the spread for college and pro football. For entertainment purposes only of course. 2010 final results: 132-98-8. Only a horrible start to the pro picks kept it from being an outstanding season. College: 77-48-1 Pro: 55-50-7 ============================ Feb. 6 (Super Bowl) 1. (W) Green Bay (-2.5) over Pittsburgh - My gut has told me Pittsburgh all week (talk about an upset stomach!), but when I break it down I see the Packers winning a close game. It's pretty much a toss up and could come down to someone making one big play in the 4th quarter. I say Aaron Rodgers makes one or two more big plays than Little Ben and the Pack takes it 27-21. Jan. 23 1. (W) Pittsburgh (-3) over New York Jets - I'll be rooting for the Jets, but it's too hard to come up with a compelling reason how or why they'll win, and there's at least 3 good reasons why the Steelers should be the choice (if you're playing with real money, that is). 2. (W) Green Bay (-3) over Chicago - Still not a believer in the Bears. Aaron Rodgers is the difference maker. Jan. 16 1. (L) Seattle (+10.5) against Chicago 2. (L) New England (-9) over New York Jan. 15 Once the playoffs begin it's easy to make a case for either team winning, but to keep the odds in your favor it's hard to go against the home teams, especially in this round when they've had an extra week to rest and prepare compared to their opponent. Since both of today's games feature very close match ups I wouldn't be surprised to see either road team win, but I'll stay with the home favorites today. 1. (W) Pittsburgh (-3) over Baltimore 2. (L) Atlanta (-2) over Green Bay NOTE ON COLLEGE BOWL GAME PICKS - I pick most or all bowl games, but many wouldn't be "official" picks if we were playing with real money, but nonetheless I'll still count everything for my season total. I make many of the bowl game picks only because it adds a little more fun to some of the otherwise uninteresting bowl games. I also don't add comments to many of the picks. Enjoy anyway. Jan. 10 - BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 1. (W) Auburn -1 over Oregon Jan. 9 - Pro 1. (W) Baltimore (-3) over Kansas City 2. (W) Green Bay (+3) against Philadelphia College 1. (W) Boston College (+9) against Nevada Jan. 8 - Pro 1. (L) - I said what?) New Orleans (-10) over Seattle - Seems like one of those "too obvious" picks, but despite playing at home, it's hard to come up with a scenario that doesn't have New Orleans winning this game, and probably by a lot. 2. (L) Indianapolis (-2) over New York Jets - Jets can't continue to keep winning road playoff games, can they? Jan. 7 1. (L) Texas A&M (+3) against LSU Jan. 6 1. (W) Miami (+2) against Middle Tennessee Jan. 4 1. (W) Ohio State (-3) over Arkansas - The Buckeye's offense needs to be the difference maker in this matchup. Although Ohio State can control a game at times with its defense, the Hogs will still get their points tonight. It's going to be up to Pryor and his buddies to score more than Arkansas does. Jan. 3 1. (W) Stanford (-2) over Virginia Tech Jan. 2 1. (W) Atlanta (-14) over Carolina 2. (L) Kansas City (-3.5) over Oakland 3. (W) Cincinnati (+10) against Baltimore 4. (L) Green Bay (-10) over Chicago 5. (L) Indianapolis (-9) over Tennessee Jan. 1 1. (L) Texas Tech (-8) over Northwestern 2. (W) Alabama (-9) over Michigan St. 3. (L) Penn State (+7.5) against Florida 4. (W) Mississippi St. (-3.5) over Michigan 5. (W) Wisconsin (+3) against TCU 6. (W) Oklahoma (-16) over Connecticut Dec. 31 1. (L) Clemson (-5) over South Florida 2. (W) Notre Dame (+4) over Miami, Fl. 3. (L) Georgia (-6.5) over UCF 4. (L) South Carolina (-3) over Florida St. Dec. 30 Tennessee failed to cover by one point in a game for the ages, and I went against my better judgement in choosing Nebraska. Live and learn. 1. (W) Army (+7) against SMU 2. (W) Syracuse (+2) against Kansas State 3. (L) Tennessee (+2) against North Carolina 4. (L) Nebraska (-13) over Washington Dec. 29 1. (L) East Carolina (+8) at Maryland 2. (W) Illinois (pick 'em) over Baylor 3. (W) Oklahoma St. (-4.5) over Arizona Dec. 28 1. (L) West Virginia (-2.5) over North Carolina St. 2. (W) Iowa (+3) against Missouri Dec 27 Pro: 1. (W) New Orleans (+3) at Atlanta - Fairly easy cover for the Saints as long as they don't lose the turnover battle. New Orleans has put up a lot of points and yardage on the Falcons the past few years, but have lost a few of those games only because of their own mistakes. College: 1. (W) Air Force (-2.5) over Georgia Tech Dec. 26 1. (L) San Diego (-7) over Cincinnati 2. (L) Philadelphia (-13.5) over Minnesota (scheduled for Dec. 26, played on Dec. 28 because of snow storm in Philadelphia) 3. (W) Tampa Bay (-5.5) over Seattle 4. (W) Kansas City (-4.5) over Tennessee Dec. 25 1. (L) Dallas (-6.5) over Arizona - Cowboys are playing like they should have early in the year, and the Cardinals are trying to get a bad season over with. Dec. 24 1. (W) Tulsa (+12.5) against Hawaii Dec. 23 College: 1. (W) San Diego St. (-3) over Navy Pro: 1. (W) Pittsburgh (-13.5) over Carolina - Steelers have to win to keep pace with the Ravens for the division title and 2nd seed in the playoffs. Even without Troy P. on defense, the Panthers shouldn't pose much of a threat tonight. Dec. 22 1. (W) Boise St. (-16.5) over Utah Dec. 21 1. (W) Louisville (-2) over Southern Mississippi Dec. 19 1. (L) Dallas (-6.5) over Washington - Team Disappointment over Team Turmoil. 2. (L - First time I ever lost a pick because an onside kick was returned for a touchdown at the end of a game) Jacksonville (+5) at Indianapolis - A changing of the division guard. 3. (W) Kansas City (+3) at St. Louis - Keeping an eye on this one to make sure Matt Cassel starts for Kansas City, otherwise I'd pull this one off the list. 4. (W) Philadelphia (+3) at New York Giants - Should be a good, close game, but look for Vick to be the difference maker for Philly. 5. (W) Atlanta (-5.5) over Seattle - The Falcons continue to fly somewhat under the radar (no pun intended), but they could be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. 6. (W) New York Jets (+5) at Pittsburgh - The Jets may not win this game, but I believe they'll come out strong and with a point to prove as they play for their playoff life. Also consider taking the under (36) on this game. 7. (L) New England (-12) over Green Bay - Opened at 10 and is now at 14. Hope you grabbed it before it jumped way up like I did. 8. (W) Chicago (-7) over Minnesota - Maybe the Vikings can get the Gophers QB to play for them Monday night? Dec. 18. 1. (W) BYU (-11) over UTEP 2. (L) Fresno St. (+2) over Northern Illinois 3. (W) Troy (-1) over Ohio Dec. 16 1. (W) San Diego (-9.5) over San Francisco - Chargers continue their patented late season run with another victory over the disappointing 49'ers. ------------------------------- Dec. 12 1. (W) New Orleans (-9) over St. Louis - The Saints seem to have the offense rolling again and at home today against the Rams they should prevail easily. 2. (T) Tampa Bay (-1) over Washington - The Buccaneers continue to impress but remain mostly under the radar, while the Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the league and are dealing with internal turmoil. 3. (W) Atlanta (-7) over Carolina - The Falcons are possibly the best team in the NFC, and the Panthers have only one win all year and a putrid offense, so tell me again why Atlanta is only favored by a touchdown? 4. (T) Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas - The Cowboys have been playing much better lately but they still have big problems on defense. With the Eagles in contention for the division title I look for Philadelphia to win this one and expect a big game from Vick. 5. (W) Detroit (+6.5) over Green Bay - The Packers are in a must win position and obviously have the much better team. The Lions are starting their 3rd string QB (Stanton) and have problems in the secondary. Naturally I'm picking the Lions to at least keep it very close. 6. (W) San Diego (-8) over Kansas City - With Cassel out today the Chiefs will have a hard time scoring and the Chargers are poised for their annual late season run. Dec. 11 1. (W) Navy (-7.5) over Army - Navy's very strong senior class has never lost to Army, and they'll keep that streak alive today. Both teams are going to bowl games, but Navy's overall talent is much better once again. Plus, my dad served in the Navy in WWII, how could I ever pick Army? ------------------------------- Dec. 5 1. (T) Chicago (-4) over Detroit - Bears keep rolling and surprising everyone waiting for them to fall. Chicago defense keeps this game under control. 2. (W) St. Louis (-3) over Arizona - Who would have thought when the season started that the Rams would be favored in this game? Just goes to show how far the Cardinals have fallen. 3. (L - talk about coulda/shoulda) Baltimore (-2.5) over Pittsburgh - Ravens at home will pull this one out over a gimpy Ben, who may not be able to finish this game with one good hit on that ankle. 4. (W) Seattle (-4) over Carolina - The Seahawks play better at home and are still in contention for a division championship, while the one win Panthers travel to the west coast for a second straight road game. Panthers have kept a lot of scores close this year, and the Seahawks are a bit of a roller coaster team, but look for them to overcome Carolina by at least a touchdown today. 5. (L) New York Jets (+4) at New England - (Monday night) A maturing Sanchez and Ryan's defense does it again to Belichick, Brady and Company. Dec. 4 1. (L - final score 50-14. Broncos, why'd you have to give up that last touchdown to Utah St.?) Boise St. (-37.5) over Utah St. - The Broncos will be looking to make someone pay for what happened to them last weekend. Would this line be 48 if they hadn't somehow lost to Nevada? 2. (W) Oregon (-16.5) over Oregon St. - In this Civil War, the Ducks are the North and the Beavers are the South. I'll spare you any more Civil War analogies than that. 3. (L - Cam, how could I have doubted you?) South Carolina (+5.5) against Auburn - The Gamecocks should have won the first meeting this year between these schools. How many games can Auburn keep pulling out that they should have lost? The key here is to just keep Cam Newton from having a huge game, and of course don't turn the ball over 4 times like South Carolina did earlier this year against the Tigers. 4. (L - another 1 pt. loss as the Sooners only won by 3 after falling behind 17-0) Oklahoma (-4) over Nebraska - The Sooner air attack has been unstoppable lately, and with the ankle of Huskers QB Martinez less than 100%, look for Oklahoma to control this game and go on to the Fiesta Bowl. ------------------------------- Nov. 28 1. (L) Baltimore (-7.5) over Tampa Bay - As usual for Baltimore, the Ravens strong defense, efficient offense plus the home field equals a fairly easy win. 2. (W) San Diego (+3) at Indianapolis - The Chargers usual November surge continues against the Colts, even though the game's in Indy. 3. (W) San Francisco (even) over Arizona - Troy Smith gets inspired by another Buckeye victory over Michigan and pretends it's 2006 all over again. 4. (L) Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago - Vick takes a bite out of the Bears. 5. (L) Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Buffalo - I'll probably lose this one as it must be a sucker bet, right? I jumped on it earlier in the week before the line went up (opened at 5, it's now 6.5 - 7). Enough Steeler fans will probably be at this game to make it almost like a home game for Ben and company. 6. (L) Cleveland (-9.5) over Carolina - The Browns may only have 3 wins, but they're a few plays away from being 7-3, and that's against the toughest schedule in the NFL to date. Although McCoy is out today, Peyton Hillis will carry the workload and with the Panthers anemic offense starting Clausen again, it should add up to a rare easy victory for the Browns. Nov. 27 1. (W) Ohio State (-17) over Michigan - I tend to avoid the Buckeyes because sometimes it's hard to separate the heart from the brain, but does anyone not associated with this rivalry think Ohio State shouldn't win this game by at least 20 points easily? 2. (W) Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky - The Volunteers have been playing better lately and will keep the Wildcats in check at home. 3. (W) Stanford (-14) over Oregon St. - The Cardinal have been good to me this year, and I think the Luck will continue as they pound Oregon St. to keep their BCS bowl game hopes alive. 4. (L) California (-6.5) over Washington - Cal plays better at home and Washington is simply very bad. 5. (W) San Diego St. (-24) over UNLV - No one's paying much attention, but the Aztecs are quietly having a decent season and even threw a scare into TCU, while UNLV has won only twice all year and is giving up over 37 points per game, which is Michigan bad. Bonus fact: I attended San Diego St. for one semester a long time ago, and seemingly in a galaxy far away... Nov. 26 (Friday) 1. (L - and to think I replaced Nebraska, which covered easily, for this game) Pittsburgh (-2.5) over West Virginia - Hold on to your moonshine fella's, this ain't RichRod's Mountaineers team. 2. (L - but anyone that saw this game knows that it was a gift for the ages for Auburn) Alabama (-4) over Auburn - The dream comes to a crashing end for Cam Newton and his dad, errr, I mean the rest of the Tigers team. The 'Bama defense will mostly hold Auburn in check and the Tigers defense will continue to be exposed as a unit not worthy of a national championship. 3. (W) Oregon (-18.5) over Arizona - I'd give Arizona a slim chance at keeping this close if they had Oregon at home, but playing on the Ducks own pond will help Oregon roll to another impressive victory on their way to a likely BCS championship appearance. 4. (L) Boise State (-14) over Nevada - Most of the money is on Nevada for this game, but the Broncos got some extra motivation the other day when they heard another national figure (Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee) stick his head out of his ivory tower long enough to proclaim Boise not worthy of playing in a BCS game. The Buckeyes better hope they don't end up facing Boise St. in a BCS bowl game. The Broncos are just too good on both sides of the ball. Nov. 25 (Happy Thanksgiving! Today's picks went 4-0) College: Pro: 2.(W) New Orleans (-2.5) over Dallas - The underrated Saints defense will hold the Cowboys in check while Drew Brees carves up the Dallas secondary. 3. (W) New York Jets (-8.5) over Cincinnati - A dejected Bengals team has to travel to New York for Thanksgiving and get beaten up by a Jets team with everything to play for. ------------------------------- Ended 3-3 for Sunday/Monday, but oh so close to 5-1. Nov. 21 1. (W) Baltimore (-10) at Carolina - Jumped on this early in the week because it was obvious this line would jump, and it did (-12 as of Sunday morning). No way the Ravens don't win this game by at least two touchdowns unless it turns into one of those "on any given Sunday" games. 2. (W) Kansas City (-7.5) over Arizona - Look for the Chiefs to bounce back strong at home after last week's debacle in Denver. Cardinals are a mess on both sides of the ball. 3. (L - Jets give up 17 points in 4th quarter) New York Jets (-6) over Houston - Sanchez and the Jets are playing strong and get a Texans team with a very bad defense at home and that's also coming off a heartbreaking loss, while the Jets had a second straight overtime victory last week. 4. (L) Oakland (+9) at Pittsburgh - Who says I never pick the underdog? This ain't exactly the Raiders of the 70's, but they've proven to be a stronger and better team than most envisioned, and the Steelers still have some problems on the offensive line and seem to have a knack for playing close games. Steelers likely get the win, but won't cover the spread. 5. (L- live by the half point, die by the half point) New England (-3.5) over Indianapolis - The Colts cost me a W last week, failing to cover the spread by 1 point, and I'm normally loath to go against Manning, but this time Brady and Belichick are on the other sideline and the Colts have a very long injury list. Oh yeah, the game's at New England too, so give the points as the Patriots continue to impress after last week's demolition of the Steelers. 6. (W) Philadelphia (-3) over New York Giants - Not much to say here except to play the hot hand while you've got it (read: Vick). Also helps that the game's at Philly. Nov. 20 1. (W) Oklahoma St. (-23.5) over Kansas - The Cowboys need to win their last two games so they'll have no trouble being motivated today, and they have a huge overall talent advantage over a weak Jayhawks team in this game. They should roll by at least 28. 2. (W) Stanford (-6.5) over California - The Bears do indeed seem to play much better at home, but there'll be a lot of Cardinal fans in the stands as well, and Luck and Company should be able to prevail over an up and down California team by at least a touchdown. Stanford is still playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl. 3. (W) Tennessee (-8.5) over Vanderbilt - Have the Vols finally started to turn it around? Even if they've only partially turned it around, that should be more than enough to handle Vandy today. 4. (W) Arkansas (-3) over Mississippi State - The Razorbacks have lost a few tough, close games this year, otherwise this line would be a lot higher. That doesn't mean they still aren't the better team, however. Mallet should have a big day passing the ball and rack up enough points to pull away in the second half. 5. (W) Texas A&M (+3) against Nebraska - In front of the home crowd and with a hot quarterback the Aggies pull off the upset against a Cornhusker team that seems to often fail to play to its potential in big games. Nov. 18 (Thursday) 1. (W) Chicago (+1) against Miami - The Bears offense can be erratic, but their defense is definitely good and should be able to handle a Dolphins team down to its 3rd team QB. ------------------------------- Nov. 14 1. (L-Colts had this wrapped up and then lost the spread by 1 point, turned a 4-2 pro weekend into 3-3) Indianapolis (-7) over Cincinnati - The Colts are home and playing an important game. The Bengals are a team in disarray that's lost 5 in a row. Surely Peyton Manning can win this game by more than a touchdown, right? 2. (W) Tampa Bay (-7) over Carolina - See above. 3. (L) Kansas City (-1) at Denver - Chiefs run over the Broncos in a big bounce back game after last week's heartbreaking loss to Oakland. 4. (L) New York Giants (-12.5) over Dallas - Cowboys have a new coach, but the players still know their season is over. Giants are already pointing toward the best record in the NFC to secure home field advantage in the playoffs. 5. (W) New England (+5) at Pittsburgh - Patriots bounce back with an inspired effort after hearing so much criticism all week from last Sunday's game against the Browns. Steelers are at home but coming off a Monday night game and their offensive line still has trouble in pass protection. 6. (W) Philadelphia (-3) at Washington - Michael Vick leads the Eagles over a turmoil filled Redskins team. Nov. 13 Opening Tip: I'm often asked, "Hey, Pigskin Picks, how come you never pick any "lock" games?". Good question, but the answer is easy: there's no such thing as a sure bet. Let me repeat that - THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A SURE BET! Ignore that advice at your own peril. Went 2-4 today. Illinois and Utah were (in retrospect) just horrible picks. Had the Buckeyes originally picked but crossed them off, so naturally they covered. 1. (L) Oregon (-19.5) over California - Cal plays better at home, but it shouldn't matter tonight if Oregon shows up to play. Plus, I love getting the half point under 20. It's all about putting odds in your favor. 2. (W) Wisconsin (-21.5) over Indiana - Playing at home and knowing that they can't let up if they want to reach a BCS bowl, the Badgers should easily roll over Indiana by half time. The danger here is a meaningless score or two at the end of the game for the Hoosiers that ends up covering the spread. 3. (L) Illinois (-20.5) over Minnesota - Can the Illini overcome last week's heartbreaker at Michigan? At home against the Gophers it shouldn't matter. 4. (L) Utah (-5.5) over Notre Dame - The Utes were proven to be over-ranked last week against TCU, but even on the road against the Irish, who will be playing their backup QB, they have more talent on both sides of the ball and should easily win this game by at least a touchdown. 5. (L) Florida (-6.5) over South Carolina - A motivated Gators team continues its recent good play and sends Spurrier back to South Carolina to lick his wounds again. 6. (W) Oklahoma St. (-5) over Texas - Going against the money (line opened at -6.5), but the Cowboys are simply better on both sides of the ball, and even a Longhorn team playing for pride won't be able to pull this one out. Nov. 11 (Thursday) 1. (W) Atlanta (even/pick 'em) over Baltimore - Give this one to the Falcons for the home field advantage and the ability to score in the red zone better than the Ravens. ------------------------------- Nov. 7 Woo hoo! 5-0! 1. (W) Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Atlanta - I don't know how they do it (see victory over Browns as prime example), but this team somehow keeps coming up with a way to win. Today they only need to keep it under 10 in a game to determine first place in their division. 2. (W) New Orleans (-6) at Carolina - The Saints have been surprisingly disappointing this year, but their defense is top notch and should be able to hold off the hapless Panthers enough to cover this line. 3. (W) New York Giants (-6.5) at Seattle - No Hasselback for the Seahawks should mean a fairly easy Giant victory. 4. (W) Green Bay (-7) over Dallas - I'm stumped trying to figure out why this line dropped from 9.5 to 7, but I'll take it. This game wasn't on my list originally, so let's hope the term "sucker bet" doesn't turn up afterward. 5. (W) Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati - The Bengals are another team that's been a big disappointment this year, and I don't believe they'll be on the road to turning their season around after this one. The Steelers lost on national TV last week so they'll be looking to redeem themselves on Monday night , and especially with this being a division/rivalry game it will bring out their pride to perform better. Nov. 6 Today's theme is simple, thus the lack of individual game comments. It's November. The teams that have the talent and know what they need to do will get it done, thus no need to over analyze individual games. In other words, a lot of 'dogs won't be barking today. I certainly don't expect to win them all (who does?), but following a specific theme like this at the right point in the season can be a good strategy to put the odds in your favor, and ultimately that's all you're trying to accomplish. When looking to benefit from this strategy, you typically need to play more games than what you otherwise may have. (Note: the one apparent exception below, Illinois +3, is not really an exception as I feel the line should be -3 for Illinois). (Sunday note: this theme strategy gave a 6-4 day (one W was not part of the theme, however), not bad, but when following this strategy you're hoping for at least 7-3. If I hadn't erred on sticking with Nebraska and chosen another team instead, I may have hit it. Actually I would have, as Stanford would have been my substitute pick, and they covered easily against Arizona.) 1. (L) Iowa (-17) over Indiana 2. (W) Illinois (+3) against Michigan 3. (W) Wisconsin (-20) over Purdue 4. (L) Alabama (-6.5) over LSU 5. (W) TCU (-4.5) over Utah 6. (W) Oregon (-33) over Washington 7. (W) Florida (-13.5) over Vanderbilt 8. (L - cardinal sin, I stubbornly stuck with this pick even after learning that Nebraska's QB wouldn't play) Nebraska (-17) over Iowa St. 9. (L - Sooners have really disappointed this year) Oklahoma (-3) over Texas A&M 10. (W) Kansas St. +3.5 over Texas - Originally only listed as a "bonus pick", this turned into a "real" pick after further research seemed to confirm the turmoil in Texas. The outcome of this game proved it. ------------------------------- Memo for Pro Picks: I'd say that a drunk monkey throwing darts at team names could do better than I've done so far this year with the pro picks, but that would probably be an insult to drunk monkeys. Seriously, I hate parity (unless it benefits my team), and a little luck going my way every now and then would help too. Oct. 31 1. (L) New York Jets (-5.5) over Green Bay - The only thing that worries me about this pick is that it seems too obvious. A very good, very rested Jets team against a banged up Packers squad with a QB that doesn't play nearly as well on the road. 2. (W) New Orleans (pick 'em) over Pittsburgh - Steelers are a bit banged up on defense and the Saints should be playing with desperation in front of a very raucous home crowd tonight. And don't expect Brees to throw 4 picks this week. 3. (W) New England (-5.5) over Minnesota - Brett who? Randy who? Think Belichick will have his team ready for this game? 4. (L) Houston (+5.5) against Indianapolis - Look for Houston to repeat their strong showing in a victory against the Colts earlier this season, especially with a number of key players out for Indy. 5. (L) Kansas City (-7) over Buffalo - I'm a bit late to the Chiefs bandwagon, but better late than never. I also think the Bills over-extended themselves last week in a surprisingly close game against the Ravens, but back to back road games against tough opponents will due them in today. Oct. 30 1. (L) Michigan (-2.5) over Penn St. - This ain't your great-great-great-grandfather's Nittany Lions team. Just ask JoePa. Plus the Wolverines had an extra week to prepare and heal for this game. 2. (W) Ohio St. (-25) over Minnesota - Let's just hope the Buckeyes don't sleepwalk through this game, that would be the only thing keeping this under 20. 3. (W) Oregon (-6.5) over USC - Obviously today's theme is to pick the road favorites, so why not this one? Seriously, although USC will come out fired up and keep it close in the first half, Oregon will be able to get to and keep at least a 10-14 point lead in the 2nd half. Consider the over on this game too ((72). 4. (L - miss by 1 point on a game that shouldn't have been half that close) Arizona (-9) over UCLA - I guess 3 road favorites isn't enough, let's go for 4. Arizona defense will completely smother the Bruins and lead to a lot of easy short drive scores for the offense. 5. (W) Stanford (-7) over Washington - The hell with 4, let's go for 5! The Cardinal are without doubt at least 2 touchdowns better than the Huskies, it just partially depends on which Washington team will show up. I think the "Luck" will be with Stanford today though. 6. (W) Nebraska (-7) over Missouri - The road favorite streak stops here as Missouri won't be able to match last week's tremendous effort against Oklahoma. A powerful Cornhuskers team will draw their energy from the home crowd and drop Missouri from the ranks of the unbeaten. ------------------------------- Oct. 24 1. (L - I hate it when teams I pick to win, but really want to lose, still win but don't cover the spread) Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami - With Rothlisbutt back and the Steeler D playing tough, it seems like everyone is picking the Steelers, so the Dolphins will probably win. How do you think those bookies in Vegas got so rich? 2. (L - Eagles somehow find a way to give up 27 pts. in fourth quarter) Philadelphia (+3) at Tennessee - Eagles are improving and the Titans are coming off a Monday night game. Tennessee has failed to cover the spread the last 7 times they've played after appearing on Monday night. Gotta stay with those odds. If I lose this one it ain't my fault. 3. (L - my favorite loss of the year as the Browns don't just cover the spread, they win by 13) New Orleans (-12.5) over Cleveland - I hate to pick this one, but I don't see the Browns being able to hang with the Saints in a second straight tough road game and starting a rookie quarterback again. 4. (L - talk about an unpredictable season) Baltimore (-12.5) over Buffalo - This is one of those "if Baltimore shows up to play there's no way this game should be within 20 points" picks. 5. (W) New England (+3) at San Diego - Have to take the points as the Patriots are the top scoring team in the NFL and the Chargers seem to keep finding ways to look bad. Oct. 23 1. (L - Ok, so I lose my Ohio Buckeye Instict card for a week, and did I really say that Purdue wasn't a pushover?) Purdue (+24) at Ohio State - My born in Ohio Buckeye instinct tells me that this team isn't over what happened to them last week (did you know that Ohio State has lost the past 3 games in which they were ranked #1?). With Purdue not being a pushover and bringing another strong defensive line to Columbus, take the points with this one, although I fully expect Ohio State to still win the game. 2. (L) West Virginia (-13.5) over Syracuse - The Mountaineers have one of the top ranked defenses in the country. Granted, it hasn't come against consistently top notch competition, but neither is Syracuse. This game's at West Virginia and look for them to easily handle an Orange team that was clobbered at home last week by Pittsburgh. 3. (L - Almost was, and definitely should have been a W. Didn't see them giving up anything close to 51 points) Oklahoma St. (+6) against Nebraska - Sometimes you look at a point spread line and immediately say to yourself "that can't be right". More times than not it isn't. Even though the money has been on Nebraska this week, taking the line from -5 to -6, this is one of those times where I feel my initial gut instinct is going to be right. Take those points and the undefeated Cowboys at home. 4. (W) South Carolina (-12) over Vanderbilt - The Gamecocks were upset by Kentucky last week (which I picked) and will be prepared today for a fairly weak Vandy team (lost 43-0 to Georgia last week, which I also picked). Spurrier will have his team ready as they still have a chance in the SEC East, but can't have a letdown in games such as today's. 5. (W) Alabama (-16.5) over Tennessee - The Volunteers are a team and a program in turmoil. There's no way this game should be even within 20 points when it's over unless the Tide has a meltdown. Oct. 21 1. (W) Oregon (-25) over UCLA - No #1 letdown for this offense. And with the Bruins starting QB sidelined, this one could get really ugly for Bruin fans. ------------------------------- Oct. 17 1. (T - should have been a W) Baltimore (+3) at New England - Have to go with that tough Raven defense looking for another statement game today. And a somewhat suspect Patriot defense will give Baltimore enough opportunities to score that the Ravens don't just cover the spread, they'll win the game. 2. (W) Detroit (+10.5) at New York Giants - Getting that extra half point here is key. The Giants may well (should) win this game, but the Lions are playing better than their record and can put some points on the board. Go against the big money (this line opened at 8) on this one and take the points. 3. (L - that's it, I stay away from Seattle the rest of the year!) Chicago (-6) over Seattle - The Seahawks are dangerous in that they seem to be either very good or very bad from week to week, but on the road against the Bears is a fairly safe bet that it should be a bad week. Chicago is 2-0 at home and Seattle is 0-2 on the road. 4. (W) Miami (+3.5) against Green Bay - The Dolphins are coming off a bye week against a very banged up Packers team. Assuming Miami doesn't have another special teams debacle, look for them to keep this close and possibly even pull out the road victory. 5. (T - also should have been a W) Indianapolis (-3) over Washington - Did you know that the Redskins are last in the NFL in defense? Did you know that Peyton Manning is still the quarterback for the Colts? What else do you need to know about this game?
Opening tip: If you're playing with real money, don't try to make up for a bad week by simply betting more the following week. Conversely, don't over-bet a week following a good week just because you think you're on a hot streak. Stick with only those games you feel most strongly about. Oct. 16 A nice 4-2 for the day, but the two losses that I picked were the #1 and #5 ranked teams in the country that both happened to lose today. 1. (L) Nebraska (-9.5) over Texas - Revenge factor, more top rate players, home field, a down year for Texas, etc.... Enough said, take the points as the Cornhuskers will show no mercy if they get the chance. 2. (W) Kentucky (+6) against South Carolina - Letdown for the Gamecocks after last week's huge upset. On the road against a team that can score points and will be fired up to get their first SEC win. 3. (W) Iowa (-3) at Michigan - Another tough defense will keep Denard Robinson in check and the Wolverines D will have a hard time keeping the Hawkeyes out of the endzone. 4. (L) Ohio State (-4) over Wisconsin - Tough game for the Buckeyes? Yes, but they've got Terrelle Pryor (assuming he doesn't hear another "pop" in that leg). Can Ohio State win on the road at night in front of a fired up enemy crowd? They've won 6 in a row in just that situation. 5. (W) Georgia (-14) over Vanderbilt - After a horrible start to the season, the Bulldogs will continue to pick up steam at home against the Commodores. 6. (W) Southern Miss (-14) over Memphis - The Tigers have been outscored 114-7 the past two weeks and now they face a strong Golden Eagles team. Southern Miss is by far the better and stronger team in this matchup and as long as they don't decide to take the afternoon off should easily roll the Tigers. ------------------------------- Oct. 11 1. (W) New York Jets (-4) over Minnesota - Sorry Vikings fans, too many distractions and likely one too many Favre interceptions. If this was a home game for Minnesota I'd give them a chance, but the Jets are playing well now. Oct. 10 Just the picks again, no comments. Given how my pro picks have done so far this season, I figure no one wants to know or cares why I picked one team over another anyway. Let's hope the turnaround starts today. But yesterday's college picks did go 4-1. 1. (L - ouch #1) Cincinnati (-6) over Tampa Bay 2. (L - ouch #2) New Orleans (-6.5) at Arizona 3. (L - ouch #3) San Diego (-6) at Oakland 4. (L - ouch #4) San Francisco (-3) over Philadelphia Oct. 9 Opening tip: Remember, even the so-called experts are wrong almost half the time, so don't let their opinion sway you if you feel you've got solid information and strong reasons for picking against them. Most point spread players have dents in their foreheads (or worse) from slapping themselves after not picking a game they could have won because they were afraid to go against the experts, or sometimes even allow one talking head on TV to sway them. 1. (W) Michigan St. (+4.5) at Michigan - Sparty finally provides a real test for Denard Robinson, not to mention they should be able to score almost at will themselves against that weak Wolverine defense. If Michigan wins this game I'll be closer to believing they're for real, but they'll have to beat Iowa next week to really prove it. 2. (W) Georgia (-10) over Tennessee - Two proud SEC programs having unusual down years, but Georgia's overall talent is still better, especially now that A.J. Green has returned, they're hopping mad after 4 straight tough losses and they've got the Vols at home. 3. (W) South Carolina (+7.5) against Alabama - It's highly unusual for even the best teams to go through a season without a close game or two, and this one sets up well for the Gamecocks. Take the points (especially that "extra" half point) with South Carolina at home. 4. (L - I guess Les Miles' luck doesn't have to run out) Florida (-6.5) over LSU - Les Miles' luck has to run out sometime, and I say it's today in Gatorland where Florida should have enough of an edge on offense to win by a touchdown or more. 5. (W) Ohio State (-22.5) over Indiana - The Buckeyes should easily be able to rack up 40 or more points today, and although the Hoosiers can pass the ball and may get a touchdown or two, it won't be enough to hang close. Only thing that scares me about this pick is Ohio State's propensity to give up a garbage touchdown or two late in the game to lose the point spread. Oct. 7 (Thur.) 1. (W) Nebraska (-10.5) over Kansas St. - The Huskers were horrible last week against South Dakota and the Wildcats will pay for it tonight. Nebraska has the better talent and the better coach on top of extra motivation, so give the points. ------------------------------- Oct. 3 Pro picks went 4-2 last week without the individual game comments, so let's see if the good fortune can continue. Feel free to guess why I picked who I did for today's games (no, a dart board or names in a hat were not involved). 1. (L) Atlanta (-6.5) over San Francisco 2. (L) New Orleans (-13) over Carolina 3. (L) Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville 4. (L) Chicago (+3.5) at New York Giants Oct. 2 Opening tip: Remember, the point spread as set by the bookmakers is NOT actually how many points they believe one team will beat another, their goal in setting the point spread is to find the point at which half the bettors will bet on one team and half on the other, that guarantees them a profit on any one game (they have a built in 6-5 ratio advantage). Of course in reality it rarely works out that way for any one specific game, but more often than not the oddsmakers do come out way ahead each week when the entire slate of games is added up. 1. (L - Buckeyes were strangely listless on offense even before the Pryor injury) Ohio State (-16.5) at Illinois - The Buckeyes have more talent than the Illini and are very focused this year, still stinging from the upset they suffered at Purdue in 2009 (they haven't lost since). Plus, they seem to have something that other recent Buckeye teams may have lacked, a bit of a killer instinct that doesn't bode well for the also-rans of the Big 10 this year. 2. (L - after taking a 21-3 lead, Stanford melted) Stanford (+7) at Oregon - The Cardinal have been good to those that have believed in them the past few years, and I believe that will continue tonight in what is sure to be a high scoring affair. Jim Harbough will have a trick or two up his sleeve that will keep it close and perhaps even pull out a Stanford victory. 3. (W) Iowa (-7) over Penn St. - JoePa's freshman quarterback will struggle on the road in a big televised night game at Iowa. The Hawkeye's D will control the game. 4. (W) Alabama (-8) over Florida - Another great match up between these two powerhouse programs. If this line was 6 or 6.5 I'd really be all over it, but even at 8 I think Saban's squad will handle the Gators again. The 'Bama defense comes up with a score or two. 5. (L - one play away from a 3-2 day instead of a 2-3 day) Michigan (-10) at Indiana - If this line had stayed at its opening number of 14 I would have left it alone, but in this case I'm going against the flow and with another Denard Robinson route, despite the Hoosiers having a pretty good QB too. ------------------------------- Sept. 27 1. (L - 18 penalties on the Packers? Really? And they still should have won the game) Green Bay (-2.5) over Chicago Sept. 26 1. (W) Indianapolis (-5.5) at Denver 2. (L) Baltimore (-10.5) over Cleveland 3. (W) Cincinnati (-2.5) at Carolina 4. (W) Pittsburgh (-2) at Tampa Bay 5. (W) Tennessee (+3) at New York Giants ------------------------------- Sept. 25 Opening tip: If you can't separate your head from your heart when it comes to evaluating certain teams, stay away from playing them that week, and don't think that just because you're a fan of a team that you know it better than Vegas does. 1. (W) Stanford (-4) at Notre Dame - The Irish will see plenty of Luck today, but unfortunately for them it won't be the good kind. For Notre Dame, the agony continues as Stanford experiences ecstasy under the Golden Dome. (Get it? The Agony and The Ecstasy? It's an old movie about Michelangelo and a Pope... oh never mind) 2. (L) Alabama (-6.5) at Arkansas - I recognize the upset trap that exists with this game, but you can be sure that Nick Saban and the 'Bama players do too, and they've been pointing to this game since summer camp. Their overall superior talent on both sides of the ball will win out. 3. (W) Michigan (-24.5) over Bowling Green - Last week's scare will keep the Wolverines on their toes for this one and they'll roll early. Oh yeah, the Falcons QB is out for the game too. 4. (L) Texas (-15) over UCLA - There was a time not that long ago when this would be a must see match up. Not this year as the 'Horns roll over a less talented Bruins team at home. 5. (L) Oklahoma (-15) over Cincinnati - This is a game I jumped on early in the week as it was obvious the line was only going to continue to go up (it's now at 18). As long as the Sooners don't suffer a rash of turnovers they should easily handle a Bearcats team that appears to sorely miss Brian Kelly. Sept. 23 (Thursday) 1. (W) Miami (FL) (-3.5) at Pittsburgh - The 'Canes travel north again but this time are facing a foe without as much talent as the last time (yes Buckeyes, I'm referring to you) and Harris likely won't throw 4 interceptions again. Pittsburgh is missing a key defensive lineman for the game and that's not going to help them either. It may stay close until the 4th quarter, but look for Miami to win by 7 or more. ------------------------------- Sept. 19 (1-4 on Sunday, but as usual only a play or two away in a couple of games from being 3-2. Pros seem to get harder to predict every year)
2. (W) Miami (+6) at Minnesota - I think this is the year that Favre finally doesn't return to the Favre of year's past, not to mention the fact that the Dolphin's D is pretty good. Another crucial interception or incompletion or two spell the difference. 3. (L - after only two weeks the Seahawks are officially this year's Jekyll and Hyde team, avoid them like the plague) Seattle (+3.5) at Denver - The Seahawks surprised a lot of people last week, myself included, and I'm already jumping on the Pete Carroll bandwagon. 4. (L) New England (-2.5) over New York Jets - The Jets offensive woes will continue against another strong Patriots team. Rex Ryan won't be letting HBO cameras anywhere around him after this one. 5. (L) New York Giants (+6) at Indianapolis - Could the Colts playoff streak be in trouble this year? Maybe not, but tonight will be no cake walk as Manning (Peyton, that is) will be finding himself on his back a lot against the Giants pass rush. Maybe I'm on to something... 5th straight road team I'm picking today. Sept. 18 Opening tip: Never ask a bad team to win for you, and always try to avoid picking games between two bad teams. You may get a few right, but you're not putting the odds in your favor by doing so. 1. (W) Arkansas (+2) at Georgia - Surprised this line isn't the other way around. Arkansas passing attack will be tough for the Bulldogs to stop. 2. (L - did I say something about defense?) North Carolina (-2) over Georgia Tech - Home field and a great Tar Heels defense are the difference makers in this one. 3. (W) Stanford (-17) over Wake Forest - Don't bother trying to stay up late to watch this one (11:20pm kickoff), it won't be close. 4. (W) Nebraska (-3) over Washington - The Huskers are back, the Huskies aren't. The Big 10 may want to rethink asking Nebraska to join them. 5. (L - bet the Hawkeyes would like to have that first half back) Iowa (+1) at Arizona - The Wildcats are a good team, but the Hawkeyes have more talent overall and will be highly motivated to win this game for what they consider a chance at a championship season. 6. (T) Michigan St. (-3) over Notre Dame - The only thing that scares me about this pick is that Notre Dame (as does Florida) has a bad habit of finding a way to play a game to be just enough a little bit better or worse than what I think they'll do. Other than that factor, I believe Sparty will handle the Irish on both sides of the ball in this one. ------------------------------- Sept. 13 1. (L - I hope you didn't watch that ugly display of offensive football) New York Jets (-1.5) over Baltimore - Should be a great game. but the combination of playing at home and with more weapons on offense, the Jets will be able to pull this one out. Sept. 12 Opening Tip: The odds makers are always very wrong about a few teams early in the season. If you can figure out which team(s) that is, you can ride them for a few weeks until Vegas catches on. 1. (T - Browns gave one away to an inferior team) Cleveland (+3) over Tampa Bay - The Browns should win this game based on the strong running game they look to continue from last season, plus the improved play from the QB position that Delhomme gives them. On defense, the injury bug hasn't bitten yet, so Cleveland will be able to handle a below average Tampa Bay offense. The sweltering heat will be a factor, but as they say, both teams have to play in it. 2. (W) Miami (-3) over Buffalo - The Dolphins are simply the better team, and although this game is at Buffalo, there'll be no swirling snow flurries and below freezing temperatures to help even things out for the Bills. 3. (W - sometimes that half point giveth, sometimes it taketh away) Arizona (-3.5) over St. Louis - The Rams are still the Rams, and they're starting a rookie QB. The Cardinals may not be as good as last year and have QB issues of their own, but there's no way they should lose this season opener to a team that'll be lucky to win 3 or 4 games all 4. (L - this was just a flat out bad choice) San Francisco (-2) over Seattle - Another road favorite picked to win. This could be the 49er's year and they know that getting off to a good start is imperative. They'll be fired up on both sides of the ball and keep the Seattle crowd out of the game. Pete Carroll's first game as a Seahawk coach will remind him he's not in southern California anymore. ------------------------------- Sept. 11 Opening Tip: one team will win the spread in the Michigan - Notre Dame game, but this is a perfect example of a game to STAY AWAY FROM. Does the phrase coin flip ring a bell? 1. (W) Ohio State (-8) over Miami - The 'Canes from the 2003 National Championship loss to Ohio State want revenge, but unfortunately for Miami, they're not the ones playing the game. Next year in Miami may be a different story, but today's game in Columbus will go the Buckeyes way as long as their sometimes inconsistent special teams play doesn't hurt them. 2. (W) Alabama (-11) over Penn St. - Joe Pa's freshman quarterback down in Tuscaloosa vs. Nick Saban's defense? Sorry Nit fans, this won't be your night. 3. (W) Oregon (-12) over Tennessee - They may not put up 72 points again, but the Ducks will prove too much to handle for Ole Rocky Top. 4. (L) USC (-18) over Virginia - The Trojans defense was less than impressive last week, but the offense won't struggle and the Cavaliers travel cross country for the first time, and they're not playing Richmond this week. Look for USC's defense to play much better to atone for a bad performance against Hawaii. 5. (L) South Florida (+16.5) against Florida - The Gators almost didn't survive last week's upset bid, and this week's opponent is much stronger. Look for an overrated Florida team to get the win, but not cover the spread against an experienced and talented foe that has the psychological edge in this one. 6. (W) Stanford (-6.5) over UCLA - The Cardinal have had trouble on the road against the Bruins, but this year they're simply too much better of a team than UCLA to not win this game by a touchdown or two. ------------------------------- Sept. 9 (Thursday) 1. (W) Auburn (-1) over Mississippi State - The Tigers are going to surprise some people this year, and I think it starts tonight. 2. (Tie - if you had told me before the game that the Saints would hold the Vikings to 9 points I would have guaranteed this pick. Just goes to show you once again that there's no such thing as a sure pick.) New Orleans (-5) over Minnesota - Revenge for Brett Favre? Forget about it! ------------------------------- Sept. 6 1. (W) Boise State (+1) over Virginia Tech - Absolutely huge game for both teams and should be a good one. Over the years, however, Boise always seems to come up big in these games and more often than not Virginia Tech falters. They certainly have the talent, and with 20 starters returning from last year I believe that Boise St. will survive this challenge. 2. (L - Navy lost 3 fumbles inside the 5 and were stopped at the goal line on downs once. Let's hope these guys don't go on to careers handling nuclear weapons.) Navy (-6.5) over Maryland - Terps will be better than last year, but Navy is never a slouch and they have some good talent returning. Take the points to win by a touchdown over a Maryland team that's not quite ready yet. Sept. 4 1. (L - perfect example of why there's NEVER such a thing as a "sure bet" in sports) Florida (-33) over Miami (OH) - Shocked that this line opened at only 30.5, and it jumped quickly, now standing at 38.5 if you didn't already get on board. It isn't often that fans (aka bettors) tell Vegas that they're so wrong. Only flukes and complete complacency will keep this one under 40. 2. (W) Purdue (+12) at Notre Dame - The Boilermakers potentially very potent offense should be able to score enough points against a suspect Irish defense to keep this one close. 3. (L - Michigan more impressive than expected, but I also thought Conn. played a bad and had a bad game plan) Connecticut (+3) at Michigan - Let the calls for Rich Rod's head begin early once again. 4. (L - shoulda/coulda easily been a W) TCU (-13) over Oregon St. - It ain't the Cowboys on the field at Cowboy Stadium tonight, but it'll be close to it. Too much firepower on the Horned Frogs side of the field to keep this one close. Sept. 3 1. (W) - Arizona (-16.5) over Toledo - Sorry MAC fans, this Pac 10 team simply has too much talent for the Rockets, at least this year. Hell, they'd probably even beat the Mud Hens in a baseball game, but I heard the Mud Hens wouldn't schedule them. Sept. 2 1. (W) - Ohio State (-27) over Marshall - This game opened at 24 and quickly shot up, it's now at 28.5 but I jumped it at 27. The Buckeyes often under perform in the first game of the year, and they barely beat Marshall at home a few years ago, but Marshall's not as good this year and this is a Thursday night game so the Buckeyes should be a little more fired up than usual. Yes, they may be looking forward to the Miami matchup a week from Saturday, but as long as they don't sleepwalk through this one they should cover the spread. 2. (W) - Utah (-2) over Pittsburgh - Utah may not be as good as in recent years, and Pitt has a strong running game, but a new QB on the road on Thursday night is going to be tough for the Panthers to overcome. Take the home team to cover again.
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Nice work so far. You got a head start on me.
I agree with all but one game. I took MSU
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