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Published March 31, 2010 Cleveland Indians for 2010 and Beyond, Introducing the Tribe-O-Meter
The Tribe-O-Meter is my confidence gauge for the Cleveland Indians, but with a twist. It's not just for the 2010 season, but also how bright their future appears to be for contending for a division title in the years ahead. With many young players on the team and more than a couple of prospects in the farm system, plus a new manager, I didn't want to limit this to just the 2010 season. I'll update the Tribe-O-Meter on an ongoing basis, blending how well this season is going with how well the Tribe's prospects look for the next few years. For the record, I probably lean more toward the glass being half full rather than half empty. The Tribe-O-Meter is on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being no chance at all this year and prospects for the future very dim, and 10 being a guaranteed playoff team. A rating of 5 to 6 means a likely .500 season. Current Tribe-O-Meter rating: 4.4 Last Tribe-O-Meter rating: 4.3 (see below for the rating on a specific date) ---------------------------------------------- March 31 Let's end March on a positive note (my NCAA tourney bracket aside). Another .1 increase for the Tribe-O-Meter. Why? Except for the injury setbacks to Kerry Wood and Russell Branyan, both of whom should return relatively early in the season (until they inevitably injure themselves again), the Tribe otherwise got good news on the injury front with the apparent return to full health for Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, and the pitching remained mostly solid, and the offense continued to bang the ball around pretty good. On top of that, most of the young prospects ticketed for the minors this year improved their stock as well. So all in all the month ends with a rating of 4.4, up from 4.0 at the start of spring training. That still doesn't mean I consider them a challenger for the Central Division title this season, but I do believe that their chances for a competitive year in 2010, and perhaps contending in the division as early as next year, are higher than they appeared before. New skipper Manny Acta also factors into this. He appears to be the kind of manager that will work well with a team and system full of young prospects, with a few good clubhouse veterans thrown in to help him out. Whether he holds up should the season quickly go south we'll see, but all in all I think he's a good fit for this team and hopefully can be around in a few years when more of the pieces come together (assuming all goes as planned of course) and the Tribe contends again. That's the last rating for March. I'll archive this page and start a new one for April and each succeeding month as the season goes along. Obviously the Tribe-O-Meter rating will hold more relevance as time goes by and we can see which way it's trending. ---------------------------------------------- March 22 The Tribe loses Kerry Wood for up to 2 months (what a surprise - not!), and Michael Brantley limps to the dugout with a sprained ankle, so the 'ole Tribe-O-Meter must go down, right? Not so fast my friend. Cleveland's combination of prospects and veterans trying to reestablish themselves in the big leagues continues to impress. Sure, it's only spring ball, but keep in mind that especially for a franchise in the shoes of the Indians, any and all victories and strong performances are both helpful and necessary. No matter how you look at it, it sure beats getting beat. The pitching has been impressive, and as I mentioned previously, it's looking more and more like the Tribe's offense will be stronger this year than many had predicted. Of course even a .500 season is going to depend on the continued development of some of the younger players and a return to form from at least 2 or 3 of the veterans (Carmona, Sizemore, Hafner, etc...), but if that does happen and the team is able to avoid the injury bug, and just one or two players surprise with their stats this year (Kearns, Branyan), my hoped for goal of contending into August is not out of the question. Besides, losing Wood early in the season may not be such a bad thing. Assuming he's able to come back and contribute at the end of the bullpen, whether as the closer or not, this gives young Chris Perez, having quite an impressive spring himself, the opportunity he may need to establish himself as a strong closer in his own right. That's why the Tribe-O-Meter goes up today from 4.2 to 4.3. Keep in mind that although at this point of the season the impact on the rating is small, the Tribe-O-Meter is also looking past the 2010 season and into 2011 and beyond. ---------------------------------------------- March 18 It's been a fairly positive week so far for the Tribe. Although they finally lost a few games, a number of their key players and prospects continue to impress and look pretty darn good in the Arizona sunshine. Carmona and Westbrook both had very good outings this week, and although by itself it's not a cue to line up for playoff tickets, it's much better than both of them getting hammered and leaving the game with a sore elbow. Speaking of sore arms, the Indians did have to hold back Kerry Wood from pitching. Although his injury just involves soreness to the lat muscle and he's listed as day to day, considering his fairly extensive injury history and how much Cleveland is depending on him this year, any news related to Wood being less than fully healthy is going to impact the Tribe-O-Meter. Combined with the overall good week they're having, we'll call it a wash and leave the rating for today at 4.2. By the way, any Russell Branyan sightings yet? ---------------------------------------------- March 13 Thanks to a couple of Bud Selig specials (tie games) Cleveland remains the only undefeated team in baseball through this point in the spring (not counting the game against the Rangers currently under way). On top of that, their team ERA also leads the majors. How can you not be excited for this team? Well, ok, there is the small fact that these games don't count in the regular season standings, and Asdrubal Cabrera will be sitting out for a few games because of a "slight" groin sprain (never good for anyone, but especially your leadoff hitter and starting shortstop), and Russell Branyan still can't play in a real game as he works his bad back into shape, and Matt LaPorta is also not fully recovered from off season surgery, and the opening day starter had Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched in almost 2 years. I could go on, but hey, it's spring! Only good thoughts around here for now. Let's bump up the old Tribe-O-Meter to a whopping 4.2. ---------------------------------------------- March 10 The Tribe won again today (10-5 over the Padres) to remain the only undefeated team in spring training. Start ordering those World Series tickets now! Being undefeated this "late" into spring training is worth at least an increase of .05 in the Tribe-O-Meter. I've noticed a more positive slant from other writers and radio talking heads the past few days when talking about the Indians, at least when it comes to their ability to score runs this year. Now if only the pitching can turn into a pleasant surprise. Seriously, all I'm asking for from the Indians this year is to at least be relevant, hopefully contending, as late as August 1. I don't expect them to win the division, I just don't want to see the season head south too early. And let's keep that injury bug away this year too. ---------------------------------------------- March 8 The Indians won again today, and despite being pretty rusty, Jake Westbrook's arm felt fine after pitching, and Michael Brantley continues to impress, even though he's likely to start off the season in Columbus. So, bump up that meter by .1 just because it's spring and anything can still happen. ---------------------------------------------- March 7 There's always a team or two each season that comes out of nowhere to surprise the baseball gods and know-it-alls. The question is, can the Indians be that kind of team this year? Let's just say I highly doubt it. Even if Cleveland gets increased production from players like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, both of whom are fully healthy (for now), and a solid season from Jake Westbrook and perhaps a return to anything close to 2007 form for Fausto Carmona, it's hard to envision the Tribe having enough consistent offense or pitching depth to contend deep into the season. And if those 4 don't come through with above average seasons and no one else (i.e. Choo or Branyan, Laffey or Huff) rises to the occasion to pick up some slack, the Tribe may even be looking at a 100 loss season. The bottom of the order and the back end of the starting rotation and the bullpen are all serious concerns. With a look towards the future, however, there is some valid reason for optimism. Of course it depends on one of the greatest unknowns in sports, that being how well baseball prospects will do once they reach the major leagues (does the name Andre Marte ring a bell?), but the Indians hopefully do have enough solid prospects at both the major and minor league level that a return to yearly contention in 2011 or 2012 and beyond is not out of the question. We'll see this year how many of those prospects continue to be prospects, and of course factor in injuries and trades, and the Tribe-O-Meter number will likely reflect more on this team's future potential as the season goes along than the actual record of the 2010 Indians.
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I'd start the rating from a lower point than 4. That's overly optimistic, even factoring in beyond this year. Unless/until the prospects start performing consistently well in the majors, the starting number should be a 3.
I like the 4.3 rating guys ! I'm a realist too. I see good things with the new faces. Thank goodness some players move on with time. Great to see the vets & rookie mix on this club.Just remember the sky didn't fall when Omar was traded. The Tribe played pretty well afterward. Oh yes- I'll take manager Acta too--because I still remember Birdie Tebbetts(maybe Birdie only lacked Spanish-HAHA)Let's see what the new mix can do, but I see a very decent batting order assembled here. Ain't no pitchers gonna snooze on the Tribe in '2010. Get positive fans !
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