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Published September 6, 2007
Big Ten Weekend PreviewBig Ten Weekend Preview The top 2 games in the Big Ten this weekend. Oregon (1-0) at Michigan (0-1) The story will no doubt be the ability or inability of Michigan to bounce back from the most disappointing loss the program has ever experienced. The Wolverines have turned their attention to winning the Big Ten, but they have no time to sit and think about the loss they endured last week as Mike Belotti brings his Oregon Ducks with a high-powered offense into Ann Arbor to try and ruin the party once again. Quarterbacks While Dennis Dixon had an exciting season debut last weekend in a 48-27 win over Houston in which he racked up 275 total yards and three scores, Michigan quarterback Chad Henne had a difficult time getting on track in the loss to Appalachian State as he completed just 19 of his 37 passes on the day. The senior, Henne, will be looking for revenge this weekend and with the weapons around him and the home crowd behind him look for the veteran to step up and play big in this one. Edge- Michigan Running Backs Mike Hart sat out most of the second and third quarters in last weekend's loss and still rushed for 188 yards and three scores. Jonathan Stewart, on the other hand, was just the third leading rusher for the Ducks last week as he totaled 67 yards on 14 carries. Junior Jeremiah Johnson rushed for 70 yards on 11 carries and two scores and Dixon led the team with 141 rushing yards and one touchdown. The tiebreaker: Houston racked up 315 rushing yards against the Ducks' defense, and while Michigan gave up 160 to Appalachian State, they made the necessary adjustments in the second half and the offense has Mike Hart to throw at the Oregon defense. Edge- Michigan Wide Receivers Both teams are very talented and fairly deep at wide receiver with a mix of deep-threat and possession receivers. Jaison Williams had just two catches last week for Oregon while Mario Manningham had just three catches for 66 yards, 46 of which came on a long pass with just over 10 seconds to go to put Michigan in field-goal position. Move to the second and third receivers and pair Adrian Arrington and Greg Mathews of Michigan against Brian Paysinger and Garren Strong of Oregon and, on paper, Michigan would seem to have the advantage. Edge- Michigan Offensive Line Both lines, when playing well, can dominate the running game, but with Oregon having the luxury of a double-threat quarterback in Dixon who can hurt teams with his feet, the Ducks' O-line might not feel the added pressure in the passing game. The Wolverines hurt themselves over and over again with penalties on offense whether it was holding or false starts as they showed their inexperience and perhaps vulnerability at a few positions along the offensive line. They do, however, have the home crowd behind them as well as Mike Hart, who, alone, can make them look better by breaking tackles and dragging defenders. Edge- Even Defensive Line Both teams were shredded by opposing offenses last week as Houston ran it often and ran effectively against the Ducks while Appalachian State beat Michigan in just about every possible way in the first half before being shut down for most of the second before taking the lead with just 26 seconds to go. The Wolverines seemed to make adjustments while Oregon relied heavily on turnovers to slow the Houston offense when it needed to. If they come in expected to get turnovers in this one, they might be hard-pressed to find them and will get burnt once again. Michigan, on the other hand, has to face the spread offense and a running quarterback once again, which has done nothing but cause them fits in the last five years or so. They did get some practice at it last week, though. Edge- Michigan Linebackers With the impact of Shawn Crable one would like to think that Michigan might have a slight advantage in this category, but the way the linebackers played as a group for the Wolverines that thought quickly escapes. The trouble they showed in going one-on-one with receivers in the slot has to excite Dixon and the Oregon offense. Oregon, however, just could not stop the running game and allowed a very respectable amount of passing yards as well most likely due to their inability to impose their will on the Cougars. With both groups of linebackers failing to play to their capabilities or successfully showing their vulnerabilities, this one becomes a wash. Edge- Even Defensive Backs Both secondaries gave up more than 225 yards through the air and showed breakdowns in coverage that allowed the offense to move the chains. Although they both forced the opposing quarterback into mistakes, a lot of work has to be done before they can be considered to have an advantage on anybody. Edge- Even Special Teams Mistakes on special teams likely cost Michigan the win last week as two missed assignments on field goals led to two blocked kicks with under five minutes to go. Meanwhile Matt Evensen made good on both of his field goal attempts against Houston, both of them from greater than 40 yards with a long of 45. The return game is essentially a wash for both teams as neither has a proven breakaway returner. Michigan might hold a slight advantage in the punting game with Zoltan Mesko who averaged 48.7 yards per kick on three punts last week, but until they can fix the mistakes in the kicking game that cost them a win a week ago the advantage has to go to the opposition. Edge- Oregon Prediction Oregon- 33 Michigan- 38
Notre Dame (0-1) at No. 14 Penn State (1-0) Charlie Weis announced that he will go with true freshman Jimmy Clausen to start this week in Happy Valley and what an environment to throw a freshman into as he makes his first collegiate start. A night game in Happy Valley means a white-out and 100,000-plus rocking the stadium and sitting right on top of Clausen and the Irish offense. Meanwhile Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions are coming off of a 59-0 spanking of Florida International in which they moved the ball with ease both through the air and on the ground. Quarterbacks Anthony Morelli will have another chance to quiet his critics this week after passing for 295 yards and three scores in last weekend's rout. The Notre Dame defense allowed just 121 passing yards last week mainly because the couldn't stop the running game. Jimmy Clausen will face a veteran tough-nosed defense led by linebacker Dan Connor. With the Nittany Lion defense on his back and the crowd creating a hostile environment, expect Clausen to struggle in his first start. Edge- Penn State Running Backs While sacks were to blame for Notre Dame's negative rushing total against Georgia Tech, they did only register 72 yards on 21 carries among the three running backs that carried the football. Penn State totaled 236 yards on the ground last week and while it did not come against a premier defense by any stretch of the imagination, three if not four backs showed the ability to be consistent and ready to lead the rushing attack. With the force of Penn State's defense and the ineffectiveness of Notre Dame's, Penn State receives the advantage here. Edge- Penn State Wide Receivers Inexperience is a big factor in Notre Dame's inability to be consistent on offense and receiver is much of the same. Tight end John Carlson is the most experienced receiver and probably considered the biggest threat for Clausen. Morelli, on the other hand, has several threats with Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler among others. With a home crowd and three legitimate targets at wideout Penn State hold a distinct advantage over an inexperienced Irish offense. Edge- Penn State Offensive Line Sacks and tackles-for-loss proved to be a major drive-killer for the Irish last week as a loss of 80 yards came as a result of sacks and tackles-for-loss. Whether it was a result of bad blocking up front or the quarterback holding on to the ball for too long, the plays still occured and the Irish face a more veteran and mature defense in Penn State this week. Penn State didn't face much of a test in the running and passing game this past week as they seemed to move the ball at will against the Panthers of Florida International. Edge- Penn State Defensive Line Penn State showed its defensive prowess in the win against the Panthers as they forced them into negative yardage in the running game. Notre Dame couldn't find a way to stop the Yellow Jacket's rushing attack as they allowed 265 yards on the ground and more than six yards a carry. Experience and discipline stand as the difference between the two teams right now and Penn State has the advantage in both categories. Edge- Penn State Linebackers Dan Connor single-handedly gives Penn State the advantage at the linebacker position but Sean Lee at one of the other two linebacker positions, Joe Paterno has himself a significant edge over the Notre Dame defense that recorded just one sack last week, which occured in the first quarter of the game. Edge- Penn State Defensive Backs With Justin King and Anthony Scirrotto leading the way in the secondary, you can't go wrong by giving Penn State the advantage in this category as well. The Nittany Lions allowed just 117 yards through the air last week and played sound defense in the secondary allowing the Panthers to complete just 46 percent of their passes. The Irish did only allow 121 yards through the air, but their inability to stop the rushing game prevented them from being challenged more in the passing game. Overall, the experience and athleticism in the Penn State secondary outweighs the Notre Dame secondary other than perhaps safety Tom Zbikowski. Edge- Penn State Special Teams Zbikowski and Derrick Williams create a virtual wash in the returning game as both are very good returners with the threat of taking it all the way each time they touch the football. Kevin Kelly was just one of two in field goals last week, but the lone miss by Kelly did come from 50-plus yards out. Brandon Walker made a 24-yard field goal last week for the Irish, but the inability of the offense to put them in position to score points could be an issue all season long for Charlie Weis' squad. Edge- Penn State Prediction Notre Dame- 13 Penn State- 34
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