Preview of Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Purdue and Michigan.
Big Ten Weekend Preview: Week Seven
The top game in the Big Ten conference this weekend.
Purdue (5-1, 1-1) @ Michigan (4-2, 2-0)
For a weekend that is filled with uninspiring matchups around the Big Ten, Purdue and Michigan is a very important game for both teams in terms of the conference race. Michigan is out to prove it can, indeed, go undefeated heading into the last couple weeks of the season and Purdue must get a win in order to stay alive in the Big Ten championship race. The Boilermakers were exposed last weekend in West Lafayette as they were overmatched at home against a strong Ohio State defense. Michigan, on the other hand, has been able to overcome two losses to start the season as well as injuries and has won four in-a-row including its first two Big Ten games. A win against Purdue will serve as a reminder to the rest of the conference that Michigan will be in the race right up to the end. Michigan has been very successful against the Boilermakers in Ann Arbor and has not lost to Purdue in almost four decades. Michigan will have to make a statement by putting up points consistently against a defense that played fairly strong in the second half of last week's loss to the Buckeyes. Michigan's defense will be glad to get welcome three starters back into the lineup this weekend as the Wolverines had a total of 10 players on the offensive and defensive two-deep depth chart missing in last weekend's game either due to injury or discipline. There's one thing Purdue can count on seeing and that is plenty of carries from Mike Hart who leads the nation in rushing with nearly 1,000 yards, including 215 last week on his way to breaking the all-time rushing record at Michigan. The key for Purdue will be to put up points early and keep the Michigan defense on its heels, while the key for Michigan will be to put pressure on Curtis Painter who showed last week that, when under pressure, he has a tendency to get flustered and will rush his reads and throws as well.
Quarterbacks
Chad Henne is still working his way back after a knee injury that cost him two games earlier this season and has shown strides the last couple of games. With Mario Manningham back after a one game hiatus, and with Adrian Arrington and Greg Mathews stepping up in the offense, Henne will have the chance to continue on his improvement against the ninth ranked pass defense in the Big Ten. Curtis Painter will have to bounce back from last week's gigantic struggle on offense in order for Purdue to have any chance in this one. Although Michigan has had trouble against the run, the bread and butter of the Boilermaker offense is spreading ball around via the pass and with the speed and/or size advantage that the receivers and tight end have, the Purdue offensive line must buy Painter time enough to get comfortable in the pocket against a Michigan defense that has racked up 23 sacks so far this season, good for fourth in the conference.
Edge- Michigan
Running Backs
What else has to be said for Michigan other than the fact that Mike Hart might very well be the most consistent running back in the country if given a consistent amount of carries. He has rushed for 106 yards or more in every game this season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Kory Sheets has been very reliable for Purdue this season in the absence of Jaycen Taylor, who is out for the year. Sheets has surpassed 500 yards on the ground, but managed just 20 yards on seven carries in last week's loss with Purdue having to turn to the passing game early getting down by two touchdowns in the early momentsof that game. Although the key for Purdue will be to find success in the passing game, it will be vital for Sheets to be able to provide a lift with a solid running game when needed. Michigan will undoubtedly try to possess the football and lead long drives in order to keep the Purdue offense off the field and Mike Hart has been very successful with that gameplan in the past.
Edge- Michigan
Wide Receivers
With an offense that averages more than 300 yards passing/game it's hard to overlook a receiving that includes one of the fastest receivers in the Big Ten in Dorien Bryant and the mismatches that tight end Dustin Keller creates. Should Painter be able to get in a comfort zone, the Michigan secondary will be running around all day trying to find where those two are as well as worrying about Greg Orton and Selwyn Lymon at the other wide receiver positions. Michigan has its share of weapons on the outside as well with Mario Manningham finally coming alive in the couple games before his absence in last week's lineup. Adrian Arrington and Greg Mathews have emerged as solid options, but Arrington and Manningham have yet to have a game when both have shown greatness. Although the offense has been been able to run the football, the inconsistencies have been in the passing game and part of that is due to the injury to Henne and another is the inconsistency of the receivers in their production. The Wolverines could really use consistency this week and for the coming weeks as they enter the somewhat bottom-heavy portion of their schedule.
Edge- Even
Offensive Line
The success of the running game that has produced more than 200 yards/game on the ground and has allowed just nine sacks in six games has been very impressive for a Michigan offensive line that has experienced four different rotations due to injury so far this season. Purdue has been very good at protecting the passer as well this season as they have allowed just seven sacks of Painter, but has led the Boilermaker offense to an average of just more than 150 yards/game on the ground. If Painter doesn't receive the protection he has gotten so far this season and some semblance of a running game on Saturday, it could be another long afternoon for Joe Tiller and the Purdue offense.
Edge- Michigan
Defensive Line
Neither Michigan nor Purdue has faired very well against the run this season as both rank in the bottom half of the conference allowing more than 135 yards/game on the ground. While Michigan has recorded 23 sacks, they have been inconsistent at stopping the running game, with some of that due to injuries at the linebacker position and new starters up front. Purdue has barely managed to experience the feeling getting a sack on defense, recording just 10 on the season. Michigan will likely use a lot of blitz packages after seeing Ohio State put pressure on Painter all night long last week and how it affected the Purdue offense as a whole. Purdue, on the other hand, has to be careful of when to be aggressive on blitzes and when not to, because Mike Hart has the ability to burn the defense on a blitz and has been one of the most consistent pass-protection backs in the Big Ten for the last few years.
Edge- Michigan
Linebackers
The Purdue linebacking corp has struggled this season and while they have recorded several tackles for loss, they have failed to get to the quarterback and have struggled mightily against the run and the pass. The defense did play well in the second half last week and much of that was due to the play of the linebackers and the defensive backs, however, and if that is a sign of the improvement to come, it will indeed be needed. Michigan is hoping that its health at the linebacker position is improved this weekend as starters John Thompson and Chris Graham both sat out last week due to injury. Although, the linebacker position has been the weakest link of the defense, Thompson was showing great improvement in previous weeks and with the lack of depth and experience at the positions, Lloyd Carr cannot afford to lose the availability of those that have that experience.
Edge- Even
Defensive Backs
Morgan Trent continues to play well in the Michigan secondary and freshman Donovan Warren has been up to the task for most of the year while safeties Jamar Adams and Brandent Englemon have been somewhat solid this season, especially against the pass. Adams leads the defense with seven pass breakups while Trent has added five more and is tied with Englemon for the team lead in interceptions with two. Depsite Michigan's struggles against the pass in the first two weeks of the season, the defense has done a respectable job at keeping teams in check as the Wolverines now rank fourth in the conference in passing defense. Terrell Vinson stands as the second leading tackler for the Boilermaker and while that is not always a good sign for a defensive back, he has really been solid for the defense all season long. With two interceptions and six pass breakups, Vinson proved himself last week against Ohio State when he made a number of great plays in the defensive backfield. Michigan might look to attack the opposite side of the defense where inexperience is a factor with both Royce Adams and David Pender and is a big reason why Purdue ranks ninth in the conference in pass defense.
Edge- Michigan
Special Teams
The most positive part of Michigan's special teams last week was the ability of K.C. Lopata, who filled in for the deeply inconsistent Jason Gingell, to convert on both of his field goal attempts. Punter Zoltan Mesko has been a weapon all year long for Michigan, averaging 41.7 yards/punt and placing 12 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Another area that has been an experiment has been punt returner as Greg Mathews showed reliability, but stepped aside last week in order to give Donovan Warren a chance but no real flashes of greatness shown through. The loss of Steve Breaston has played out to be more of a significant loss than most fans would like to admit. Chris Summers has made eight of 10 field goals this season, including a perfect seven of seven from 39 yards and in. Punter Jared Armstrong has averaged 39.8 yards/punt, but has landed just six punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line, and left the defense in several tough positions last week with some missed opportunities to change field position. The real advantage that Purdue holds in the special teams department is the presence of Dorien Bryant as a kick and punt returner. Bryant has averaged more than 30 yards on kick returns this season and has one of Purdue's twokick returns for a touchdown this season. Depsite a punt return average of just more than eight yards/return, Bryant remains a threat to go all the way everytime he touches the ball.
Edge- Purdue
Prediction
Michigan will use several blitz packages on defense to try and confuse Curtis Painter and, although Michigan will likely not shut the Purdue offense down quite to the extent that Ohio State did a week ago, playing aggressive by blitzing should serve them well and give them plenty of chances to make plays. If Purdue allows Mike Hart to get going early, expect Michigan to stick with the running game as much as possible to limit the amount of opportunities that Purdue has to get going on offense. With Hart running the football, Michigan will be able to control the clock and keep the Boilermakers' offense off the field preventing them from developing any sort of rhythm.
Purdue - 17 Michigan - 27