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Big Ten Preview:  Week Nine

The top game in the Big Ten this weekend

No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)  @  No. 25 Penn State (6-2, 3-2)

It's the second game in a tough 5-game stretch for the Buckeyes in the Big Ten conference, traveling to Happy Valley and facing a Penn State team that has nothing to lose and everything to gain.  The Nittany Lions are now looking for the chance to ruin the Buckeye's dream season while, at the same time, looking to move up in the rankings and qualify for a respectable bowl at season's end with what would the Lions' fourth-straight victory.  All year long this was referred to as Ohio State's real first test.  Having already played out in Seattle and in West Lafayette, the Buckeyes have passed the test so far, but this atmosphere will be different from any this team has faced so far.  The traditional "whiteout" will make another appearance and with Ohio State's recent struggles in Happy Valley firmly implanted into the Buckeyes' memory, this game will likely be another defensive battle, a characteristic that fits the Buckeyes' style of play.  Since 2001, Ohio State is 14-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, while Penn State is just 11-11. 

When Penn State has the ball...

The story has been the same nearly all year long for the Penn State offense.  As Anthony Morelli goes, so goes the Nittany Lion offense.  In Penn State's six wins, Morelli has completed 61 percent of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns and just four interceptions.  In the NittanyLions' two losses, however, Morelli has completed just 52 percent of his passes while throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions. Morelli will need to be nearly perfect in facing the Buckeyes' defensive backfield, one that allows just 146 yards/game passing, tops in the Big Ten.

Morelli has the weapons in Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams among others, but putting together a gameplan that will allow Morelli to get the ball to them in space will be a tough task for offensive coordinator Galen Hall.  The Buckeyes have been very stingy against the run as well as they have limited opponents to just 62 yards/game on the ground while recording 25 sacks.  Penn State has averaged 186 yards/game rushing with senior Rodney Kinlaw leading the way, and while the Lions won't likely approach that mark, it will be important for them to run the ball with some success in order to avoid being one-dimensional and allowing the Buckeyes defense to settle in.  If Morelli can find success early and get the receivers involved from the very start, it will take a lot of pressure off of the Penn State defense and allow them to play with confidence knowing the offense can move the football. 

When Ohio State has the football...

Chris Wells showed what he can do when healthy for a whole game as he shredded Michigan State last week for 221 yards and a touchdown on the ground.  With Todd Boeckman being so effective in the passing game, it has given Ohio State the added dimension that it needed to avoid being what everyone expected them to be this season, a running team with a susceptible passing game.  Brian Robiskie has solidified himself as one of the Big Ten's best big-play receivers with his seven touchdowns and 700-plus yards receiving.  Robiskie also has averaged a Big Ten-best 19.7 yards/reception.

Much like Ohio State, Penn State's uses the formula of solid rush defense for success on the defensive side of the ball.  In fact, Penn State ranks second in the Big Ten to only Ohio State in both rush and pass defense.  Although it will be key for the Penn State rush defense to show up again, it will be equally key for corner Justin King and safety Anthony Scirotto to limit the amount of opportunities that Boeckman has to throw the deep ball to Robiskie, Brian Hartline and Ray Small.  When the Buckeyes have struggled most to move the football, they have often been able to beat the defense deep down the field.  If the Penn State secondary allows Boeckman to loosen them up, Ohio State will make them pay with long sustaining drives, keeping the defense on the field for long periods of time and preventing them from gaining any advantage in field position. 

Players to Watch

Offense

There is no question that Chris Wells will be the key to the Buckeyes success.  If the sophomore can stay healthy through yet another full game, it will benefit the Buckeyes greatly. He is exactly the type of back, with power and speed, that Ohio State needs in facing a tough linebacking corp led by Dan Connor and Sean Lee.  If Wells exceeds 100 yards on his own, it should be a favorable score for the Buckeyes.  Gaining that kind of yardage, though, might take a fairly high number of carries, something that Wells has struggled with all year with bone chips in his ankle.  
 

Anthony Morelli will be the biggest key for not only Penn State, but in the game.  The talent at receiver that Penn State has, is likely the only position the Nittany Lions can claim to have much of an advantage at all.  If Morelli can eliminate the mistakes and start out fast by completing a high percentage of passes early, it will help loosen up the Ohio State defense and should help keep Penn State in the game along with keeping the crowd alive and the momentum in the Nittany Lions' favor.   

Defense

Penn State needs a huge performance from the whole defense, but particularly from Justin King.  King was matched up with Indiana wideout James Hardy for much of last week and won his share of battles, but lost more a few as well as many do with Hardy.  The challenge won't get much easier this week with Robiskie coming in as a formidable downfield threat.  If King can keep the Buckeyes from throwing the ball downfield and stretching the defense, the Penn State defense will likely have done its job, assuming that Connor and Lee can lead another solid effort against the rush.  

Vernon Gholston will be a big key in this game in creating a pass rush against Anthony Morelli.  A major contributor to Morelli's struggles in losses this season has been the success of the defense in creating pressure and forcing him to move out of the pocket and make quick decisions, something that Galen Hall doesn't necessarily want Morelli doing.  If Gholston and the Buckeyes defensive line can put pressure on Morelli, it just might be a struggle for Penn State to move the ball with any consistency. 

Prediction

Ohio State will make just enough plays down the stretch to pull this one out and pass another tough test while moving into the toughest part of the schedule.  Much like last week, if Ohio State can get out to a two-score lead early, it will be devastating to the Penn State defense unless the offense starts turning the ball over once again.  Penn State will stay in it until late in the second half thanks to the home crowd, but just doesn't have enough fire power on offense to finish the job. 

Ohio State- 24  Penn State- 13
 
    
 

Tags: big ten preview, ohio state football