Big Ten Weekend Preview Week 5
Big Ten Weekend Preview: Week Five
The top game in the Big Ten Conference this weekend.
Michigan State (4-0) @ No. 9 Wisconsin (4-0, 1-0)
The Spartans will open conference play by traveling to Madison to face the Badgers in a matchup that will erase one of the remaining four Big Ten teams from the ranks of the unbeaten. First-year Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio will exchange wits with second-year head man Bret Bielema, who has experienced defeat in just one of his first 17 games as the head coach at Wisconsin. The Badgers have won 14 straight and dating back to last year's loss to Michigan in the Big Ten opener last season. The key to the game will be for Michigan State to keep the production of P.J. Hill limited and to a minimum and force the Badgers and quarterback Tyler Donovan to go downfield and beat them with the pass. On offense, the Spartans will have to not only be able to run the football, but it will be vitally important for signal caller Brian Hoyer to spread the ball around to different receivers in order to keep the aggressive Wisconsin defense on its heels. Wisconsin is trying to prove that it should still be considered a Big Ten favorite while Michigan State is out to prove that they are a much improved team and one that will be a force to reckon with down the road under Mark Dantonio.
Quarterbacks
Both Tyler Donovan and Brian Hoyer are first-year starters under center and have shown flashes of great play, but at the same time have shown the mistakes that are commonly made due to inexperience at the position. Donovan has the slight edge statistically, completing 60 percent of his passes and has thrown for 761 yards and seven scores while throwing just one interception. Hoyer has thrown for 769 yards and seven scores while throwing three interceptions and completed 57 percent of his passing attempts. Which team will need its passing game more in order to survive in this game? The likely answer will be Michigan State and if Hoyer struggles to begin the game as he has a couple times this season already, Wisconsin can rely on the running game and one of the best running backs in the Big Ten in P.J. Hill. Hoyer does have the targets to throw to, however, and if he can start off fast, Michigan State could find themselves in a position to pull the upset.
Edge- Even
Running Backs
The duo of Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick have been more than sufficiently productive for the Spartan offense to this point. Combining for nearly 700 yards and seven touchdowns, Ringer and Caulcrick possess the change of pace that gives defensive coordinators nightmares and Wisconsin, who averages giving up just shy of 100 yards per game on the ground, will have to plan their blitzes cautiously to avoid getting burnt by the speed of Ringer. At the same time the defense will not be able to sit back and wait on the rusher, because Caulcrick will use his aggressive downhill rushing style on his way to a big day. P.J. Hill remains one of the top backs in the Big Ten and has rushed for just over 500 yards and seven touchdowns as a sophomore this season. Similar to Wisconsin, Michigan State hasn't been too rusty against the rush this season (95.8 yards allowed/game), but have struggled with good backs as Pittsburgh's LeSean McCoy slashed them for 172 yards two weeks ago.
Edge- Even
Wide Receivers
The depth at the wide receiver position for Michigan State would undoubtedly give them the edge, but the use of Wisconsin tight end Travis Beckum in the offense and the athleticism he possess in going one-on-one with defensive backs makes this a more even matchup. Devin Thomas has been the Spartan's do-it-all wideout with 16 catches for 370 yards and three scores this season and has proven to be the big play receiver averaging over 23 yards a catch while tight end Kellen Davis has added three scores as the second leading receiver. Luke Swan leads the Badgers with 20 receptions for 359 yards and two trips to the endzone while the All-American candidate Beckum has 193 yards and two scores on 20 catches as well. The rushing game for both teams will determine how important of roles the wideouts play, but if it comes down to the pass for either team, they have the potential to make big plays.
Edge- Even
Offensive Line
When comparing rushing and pass protection statistics, the two teams are about as even as can be. Wisconsin averages 202 yards/game rushing while MSU averages 200. MSU has allowed nine sacks on offense this season while Wisconsin has given up eight. Since both teams have shown the ability to stop the run when they absolutely have had to do so this season, neither team is more deserving than the other of getting the edge here.
Edge- Even
Defensive Line
Both teams have allowed less than 100 yards/game rushing, but Michigan State has been very efficient in getting to opposing quarterbacks as they lead the Big Ten with 21 sacks through four games. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has recorded just nine sacks and although they have, for the most part, played very sound defensively they have struggled in getting to the quarterback.
Edge- Michigan State
Linebackers
Elijah Hodge, Jonathan Casillas and Deandre Levy are the top three tacklers for the Badger, but the trio has accounted for just six tackles for loss and half a sack. Eric Gordon, Kaleb Thornhill and Greg Jones have combined for 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks for the Spartans. When the Wisconsin defense has had to rise to the occasion, though, they have and they will not back down in this one either as they play physical and will keep the Badgers in the game and give the offense a chance to win it in the end.
Edge- Even
Defensive Backs
Michigan State is allowing just 170 yards/game through the air. However their leading tackler is defensive back Kendell Davis-Clark and that is often not a statistic that a coach likes to see from the defensive backfield meaning that running backs are often getting into the third level of the defense. Wisconsin allows 213 yards/game through the air and with shutdown corner Jack Ikegwuonu getting few throws his way, Wisconsin can play a lot more man-to-man coverage and allow the rest of the defense to play free and blitz more aggressively.
Edge- Wisconsin
Special Teams
Brett Swenson has connected on just four of his seven field goal attempts this season, including just two of four from 20-29 yards out. Taylor Mehlhaff has gone four for four in field goal attempts for the Badgers and punter Ken Debauche has averaged 39.7 yards/punt. MSU punter Aaron Bates averages 39.5 yards/punt for the Spartans. Neither team is a huge threat in the return game, but Wisconsin has been able to play solid in the field position game so far this season.
Edge- Wisconsin
Prediction
If Michigan State can find a way to consistently stop P.J. Hill and the Badger running game, they have a real shot in this one. They will have to get out to a quick start on offense, however, and that has been a bit of a problem in past weeks. Wisconsin wins this one more with the defense rather than the offense on their way to their 15th consecutive victory.
Michigan State- 17 Wisconsin- 20